{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ab5edc0-a6f7-41ca-9e94-ea26d12b07f8", "symbol": "5RE", "name": "Asia Vets Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.312, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.615, "architecture_energy": 27.733, "architecture_maturity": 37.689, "architecture_confidence": 67.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.94, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 10.44, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 49.79, "downward_expansion": 45.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.073667, 0.074, 0.079505, 0.080624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.079, "trend_reference": 0.077367, "distance_from_trend": 0.021112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.045083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.752311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.074524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.58, "excess_performance": 0.425165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.267613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.752311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170745, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.612038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.58, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.046105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100000, "relative_activity": 0.712225, "balance": 0.046105, "dry_up": 0.183042, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108082, "annualized_volatility": 0.777388, "from_high_reference": -0.341667, "from_low_reference": 2.291667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.077367, "fair_value_reference": 0.045083, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006094, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.16, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.091232, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.422222, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.22807, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.220872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.309279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22807, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.76, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215385, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.057, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30700.0, "trend": 0.0553, "fair_value": 0.064967, "relative_strength": 0.474018, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.811113, "energy": 21.311728, "activity_lines": [ 0.057, 0.057545, 0.059376, 0.057789 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.057, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30700.0, "trend": 0.054833, "fair_value": 0.064834, "relative_strength": 0.73656, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.098686, "energy": 15.137858, "activity_lines": [ 0.057, 0.057236, 0.059086, 0.057899 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.045, "volume": 70100, "typical_volume": 34040.0, "trend": 0.0549, "fair_value": 0.064625, "relative_strength": -20.56166, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.65325, "energy": 59.398423, "activity_lines": [ 0.053, 0.054873, 0.057586, 0.057265 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 0.064, "volume": 10600, "typical_volume": 34570.0, "trend": 0.0556, "fair_value": 0.064562, "relative_strength": 14.491188, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.521045, "energy": 16.719602, "activity_lines": [ 0.056133, 0.056309, 0.058014, 0.057852 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34520.0, "trend": 0.0563, "fair_value": 0.064525, "relative_strength": 12.601229, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.110955, "energy": 18.861769, "activity_lines": [ 0.0588, 0.057673, 0.058471, 0.058394 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 33520.0, "trend": 0.057, "fair_value": 0.064499, "relative_strength": 15.927043, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.712414, "energy": 27.227393, "activity_lines": [ 0.061, 0.058909, 0.058933, 0.05889 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 33520.0, "trend": 0.0577, "fair_value": 0.064474, "relative_strength": 15.134003, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.850475, "energy": 45.904431, "activity_lines": [ 0.062733, 0.060018, 0.059352, 0.059342 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32470.0, "trend": 0.0584, "fair_value": 0.064399, "relative_strength": 16.966488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.371455, "energy": 76.078229, "activity_lines": [ 0.064, 0.061, 0.059729, 0.059748 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32470.0, "trend": 0.0591, "fair_value": 0.064368, "relative_strength": 16.931485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.090814, "energy": 73.638676, "activity_lines": [ 0.064, 0.061855, 0.060105, 0.06011 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 0.064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32470.0, "trend": 0.0598, "fair_value": 0.064336, "relative_strength": 21.454188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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18.295564, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.133187, "energy": 42.264728, "activity_lines": [ 0.064, 0.064, 0.062667, 0.061712 ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 0.04, "volume": 59700, "typical_volume": 7020.0, "trend": 0.060567, "fair_value": 0.063912, "relative_strength": -26.344695, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -65.568557, "energy": 87.475123, "activity_lines": [ 0.056, 0.059636, 0.060671, 0.060353 ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7020.0, "trend": 0.059767, "fair_value": 0.063752, "relative_strength": -26.270676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.65119, "energy": 98.124334, "activity_lines": [ 0.0496, 0.055709, 0.058757, 0.059026 ] }, { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 0.029, "volume": 400200, "typical_volume": 27030.0, "trend": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.065, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 1070065.0, "trend": 0.071733, "fair_value": 0.044692, "relative_strength": 5.570973, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -31.736299, "energy": 56.756935, "activity_lines": [ 0.073667, 0.080127, 0.084538, 0.080987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.065, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1032835.0, "trend": 0.072933, "fair_value": 0.044744, "relative_strength": 3.600934, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.392434, "energy": 79.511896, "activity_lines": [ 0.069667, 0.076691, 0.082486, 0.080553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 314575.0, "trend": 0.074133, "fair_value": 0.044795, "relative_strength": 0.994845, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.825805, "energy": 63.308672, "activity_lines": [ 0.067, 0.073727, 0.0805, 0.080041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 262955.0, "trend": 0.075833, "fair_value": 0.044942, "relative_strength": 21.555643, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.042684, "energy": 40.807059, "activity_lines": [ 0.070667, 0.073909, 0.080038, 0.080419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.079, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 140405.0, "trend": 0.077367, "fair_value": 0.045083, "relative_strength": 17.074524, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.614588, "energy": 27.732727, "activity_lines": [ 0.073667, 0.074, 0.079505, 0.080624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }