{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ab72390-36c5-4255-b565-0d9f2470d65f", "symbol": "688313", "name": "Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.951, "architecture_energy": 35.757, "architecture_maturity": 7.192, "architecture_confidence": 46.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.75, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 17.36, "deceleration": 61.84, "rotation_down": 64.48, "downward_expansion": 42.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.467333, 130.623633, 141.721398, 133.934074 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 127.699997, "trend_reference": 121.13507, "distance_from_trend": 0.054195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.787702, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.851229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.021819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.389554, "excess_performance": 0.432758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188445, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.851229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.379207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.270218, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.934426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.389554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.343747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184740260, "relative_activity": 1.351253, "balance": 0.343747, "dry_up": 0.979414, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217065, "annualized_volatility": 0.959703, "from_high_reference": -0.341753, "from_low_reference": 1.444019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.13507, "fair_value_reference": 44.787702, "structural_low": 74.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.139101, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.11679, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300345, "worst_return": -0.06627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.128787, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.11205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158609, "worst_return": 0.098965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.436558, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.387632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.872267, "worst_return": 0.000848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Developing", "return": 0.22071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060149, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.478037, "volume": 62105511, "typical_volume": 146274016.7, "trend": 13.602347, "fair_value": 15.104656, "relative_strength": 7.585339, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"fair_value": 42.973884, "relative_strength": 26.563729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.337546, "energy": 14.100618, "activity_lines": [ 146.068002, 154.000814, 149.421618, 135.850453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 111.580002, "volume": 118434294, "typical_volume": 135574514.7, "trend": 119.87607, "fair_value": 43.583095, "relative_strength": 16.836889, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.477596, "energy": 20.903065, "activity_lines": [ 131.306002, 145.254, 147.132466, 135.351739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.040001, "volume": 129940102, "typical_volume": 134486964.2, "trend": 119.837736, "fair_value": 44.060629, "relative_strength": -6.736287, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.003538, "energy": 41.679928, "activity_lines": [ 113.621335, 133.748505, 142.653837, 133.426831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.699997, "volume": 184740260, "typical_volume": 136717748.75, "trend": 121.13507, "fair_value": 44.787702, "relative_strength": 27.021819, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.951489, "energy": 35.756899, "activity_lines": [ 114.467333, 130.623633, 141.721398, 133.934074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }