{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5aba3959-f9fd-4ee3-9e39-5aad69f90cba", "symbol": "PR", "name": "Permian Resources Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.064, "architecture_energy": 51.591, "architecture_maturity": 6.703, "architecture_confidence": 74.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.37, "rotation_up": 66.39, "upward_expansion": 79.06, "deceleration": 53.18, "rotation_down": 11.51, "downward_expansion": 10.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.640667, 19.984431, 19.837714, 19.687927 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.15, "trend_reference": 19.031235, "distance_from_trend": 0.058786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.3659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.904275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.210244, "excess_performance": 0.084619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.402627, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.210244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50639388, "relative_activity": 0.929632, "balance": 0.935153, "dry_up": 0.817415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068044, "annualized_volatility": 0.343364, "from_high_reference": -0.102296, "from_low_reference": 0.736867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.031235, "fair_value_reference": 14.3659, "structural_low": 16.177485, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002116, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.2067, "worst_return": -0.296188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014906, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.020612, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.339187, "worst_return": -0.201235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004335, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072264, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.483721, "worst_return": -0.204182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.50389, 19.016028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.15, "volume": 38021825, "typical_volume": 60357302.25, "trend": 18.099645, "fair_value": 14.098396, "relative_strength": 8.374403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.151686, "energy": 13.865395, "activity_lines": [ 18.721584, 18.949974, 19.467916, 19.094418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.21, "volume": 43102478, "typical_volume": 59767979.2, "trend": 18.320276, "fair_value": 14.164648, "relative_strength": 15.565907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.032534, "energy": 14.291558, "activity_lines": [ 19.206023, 19.130334, 19.525811, 19.23057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.35, "volume": 46088907, "typical_volume": 57714785.4, "trend": 18.581202, "fair_value": 14.237645, "relative_strength": 22.022608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.051528, "energy": 31.463104, "activity_lines": [ 20.010667, 19.505439, 19.681691, 19.426036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.31, "volume": 38275774, "typical_volume": 55811197.2, "trend": 18.819488, "fair_value": 14.306729, "relative_strength": 19.776767, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.643881, "energy": 48.511751, "activity_lines": [ 20.605333, 19.860174, 19.82037, 19.602087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.15, "volume": 50639388, "typical_volume": 54472485.25, "trend": 19.031235, "fair_value": 14.3659, "relative_strength": 8.904275, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.063948, "energy": 51.590547, "activity_lines": [ 20.640667, 19.984431, 19.837714, 19.687927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }