{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ac3db82-c360-4435-be14-2e52f305a8a6", "symbol": "ZPW", "name": "BMO US Put Write ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.036, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.233, "architecture_energy": 62.733, "architecture_maturity": 25.56, "architecture_confidence": 71.563, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 67.75, "upward_expansion": 84.84, "deceleration": 55.21, "rotation_down": 20.12, "downward_expansion": 9.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.781664, 15.691951, 15.517478, 15.34135 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.059999, "trend_reference": 15.156701, "distance_from_trend": 0.059597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.836701, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.174333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077676, "excess_performance": -0.042745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044021, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036696, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.503012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21500, "relative_activity": 1.020408, "balance": 3.503012, "dry_up": 0.427148, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016297, "annualized_volatility": 0.084919, "from_high_reference": -0.005573, "from_low_reference": 0.136501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.156701, "fair_value_reference": 13.836701, "structural_low": 14.47828, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.013875, "positive_rate": 0.767442, "directional_follow_through": 0.767442, "median_excess_return": -0.003731, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.031511, "worst_return": -0.054218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.033876, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018593, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.051294, "worst_return": -0.052719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043605, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022936, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094255, "worst_return": -0.090661, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 13.705102, "relative_strength": -6.104479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.704356, "energy": 59.391152, "activity_lines": [ 15.529832, 15.455037, 15.241167, 15.134133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.715158, "volume": 17800, "typical_volume": 26185.0, "trend": 15.073705, "fair_value": 13.732387, "relative_strength": -5.539664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.16121, "energy": 61.295319, "activity_lines": [ 15.598022, 15.520904, 15.302978, 15.176997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.65563, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 24425.0, "trend": 15.094981, "fair_value": 13.758605, "relative_strength": -5.502522, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.612865, "energy": 56.876954, "activity_lines": [ 15.631687, 15.560573, 15.354881, 15.214541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.586183, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 22330.0, "trend": 15.112672, "fair_value": 13.783713, "relative_strength": -5.903749, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.770011, "energy": 54.502586, "activity_lines": [ 15.623552, 15.5769, 15.396282, 15.246231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.66, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 21405.0, "trend": 15.132979, "fair_value": 13.809048, "relative_strength": -4.765629, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.075563, "energy": 51.897335, "activity_lines": [ 15.645843, 15.600417, 15.440228, 15.281543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 21500, "typical_volume": 21070.0, "trend": 15.156701, "fair_value": 13.836701, "relative_strength": -5.174333, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.23315, "energy": 62.733404, "activity_lines": [ 15.781664, 15.691951, 15.517478, 15.34135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }