{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ac719b0-6480-4039-ac1f-85de67ac2ff3", "symbol": "DFDV", "name": "DeFi Development Corporation UK PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.683, "architecture_energy": 40.215, "architecture_maturity": 79.42, "architecture_confidence": 83.851, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.76, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 6.24, "deceleration": 54.89, "rotation_down": 39.86, "downward_expansion": 74.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.162333, 0.166127, 0.203129, 0.263942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.372533, "distance_from_trend": -0.557087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.509558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.9843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.852167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.784314, "excess_performance": -0.835549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.557087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.9843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.768522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.784314, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.131586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 549447, "relative_activity": 1.834564, "balance": 2.131586, "dry_up": 0.73101, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.538508, "annualized_volatility": 1.42097, "from_high_reference": -0.943103, "from_low_reference": 0.65 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.372533, "fair_value_reference": 10.509558, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.025316, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.056061, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 2.971429, "worst_return": -0.646753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.298513, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.328745, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.685714, "worst_return": -0.902778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.382338, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.413744, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.13522, "worst_return": -0.936364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.729091, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.865089, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.958182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-07-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.521818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.60567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.252427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.440678, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 30.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"volume": 72898, "typical_volume": 271789.85, "trend": 0.3912, "fair_value": 10.899878, "relative_strength": -79.413056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.397325, "energy": 43.152512, "activity_lines": [ 0.173667, 0.174909, 0.223738, 0.294065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 200975, "typical_volume": 276673.0, "trend": 0.3857, "fair_value": 10.704654, "relative_strength": -80.622085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.069964, "energy": 45.483042, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.167564, 0.2116, 0.278181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 549447, "typical_volume": 299497.3, "trend": 0.372533, "fair_value": 10.509558, "relative_strength": -76.852167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.68338, "energy": 40.215004, "activity_lines": [ 0.162333, 0.166127, 0.203129, 0.263942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }