{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5acd28d1-e9da-4477-b9cd-96f8a1f7f5f3", "symbol": "IMM", "name": "Immutep Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.902, "architecture_energy": 67.627, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 56.09, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.049127, 0.051714, 0.078301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.145133, "distance_from_trend": -0.66927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.286634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.832539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -78.293925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.868493, "excess_performance": -0.932199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.66927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.832539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.782939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.868493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.098189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23156061, "relative_activity": 0.210405, "balance": 0.098189, "dry_up": 0.528244, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145833, "annualized_volatility": 3.160301, "from_high_reference": -0.897872, "from_low_reference": 0.714286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.145133, "fair_value_reference": 0.286634, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.024642, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.025489, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.630435, "worst_return": -0.21519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.163463, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270833, "worst_return": -0.868852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", 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-67.747266, "energy": 67.628024, "activity_lines": [ 0.051467, 0.051891, 0.058524, 0.111495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 116142059, "typical_volume": 150568733.85, "trend": 0.183067, "fair_value": 0.291589, "relative_strength": -77.544278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.226269, "energy": 68.995968, "activity_lines": [ 0.0512, 0.051255, 0.05499, 0.102168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 50180858, "typical_volume": 152591395.7, "trend": 0.170833, "fair_value": 0.289909, "relative_strength": -77.972057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.115181, "energy": 69.899124, "activity_lines": [ 0.050067, 0.050436, 0.052862, 0.093454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.046, "volume": 43063281, "typical_volume": 133097955.55, "trend": 0.158033, "fair_value": 0.288217, "relative_strength": -78.965444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.839831, "energy": 71.316127, "activity_lines": [ 0.0486, 0.049473, 0.052195, 0.0854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 23156061, "typical_volume": 110054476.15, "trend": 0.145133, "fair_value": 0.286634, "relative_strength": -78.293925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.902412, "energy": 67.627486, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.049127, 0.051714, 0.078301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }