{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5aceb747-0777-4bbb-b2dd-66591ebb8ae7", "symbol": "COUR", "name": "Courtois S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.486, "architecture_energy": 80.02, "architecture_maturity": 33.532, "architecture_confidence": 84.986, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 11.43, "upward_expansion": 19.51, "deceleration": 38.53, "rotation_down": 72.53, "downward_expansion": 92.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.8, 104.8, 108.542857, 110.563441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 105.0, "trend_reference": 112.8, "distance_from_trend": -0.069149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 121.474359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.172218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094828, "excess_performance": -0.148139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028981, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.077519, "balance": 1.5, "dry_up": 1.705426, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034432, "annualized_volatility": 0.270841, "from_high_reference": -0.132231, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.8, "fair_value_reference": 121.474359, "structural_low": 100.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.008658, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.004962, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.112069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.019505, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.07438, "worst_return": -0.045455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007949, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056911, "worst_return": -0.060345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060988, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.002204, "worst_return": -0.057851, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"trend": 117.4, "fair_value": 123.02877, "relative_strength": -9.810511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.936189, "energy": 30.108759, "activity_lines": [ 116.0, 116.127273, 116.2, 116.632258 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 114.0, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 155.05, "trend": 117.2, "fair_value": 122.969337, "relative_strength": -5.777345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.301584, "energy": 33.582183, "activity_lines": [ 115.133333, 115.727273, 115.952381, 116.412903 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 114.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 155.05, "trend": 117.0, "fair_value": 122.909903, "relative_strength": -5.090821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.626182, "energy": 42.254721, "activity_lines": [ 114.266667, 115.363636, 115.738095, 116.206452 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 110.0, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 10.05, "trend": 116.666667, "fair_value": 122.868729, "relative_strength": -8.256798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.305773, "energy": 68.103087, "activity_lines": [ 112.533333, 114.290909, 115.17619, 115.754839 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 117.0, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 13.85, "trend": 116.566667, "fair_value": 122.828526, "relative_strength": -0.455586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.109052, "energy": 37.291341, "activity_lines": [ 113.866667, 114.672727, 115.309524, 115.776344 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 117.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.85, "trend": 116.466667, "fair_value": 122.782051, "relative_strength": -2.38347, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.59338, "energy": 16.623049, "activity_lines": [ 115.0, 115.0, 115.438095, 115.804301 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 111.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 116.166667, "fair_value": 122.679487, "relative_strength": -7.940144, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.477317, "energy": 31.203859, "activity_lines": [ 113.866667, 114.181818, 114.990476, 115.451613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 116.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 116.133333, "fair_value": 122.621795, "relative_strength": -4.108301, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.529838, "energy": 14.682233, "activity_lines": [ 114.6, 114.327273, 115.042857, 115.44086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 116.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 116.0, "fair_value": 122.564103, "relative_strength": -5.369776, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.950483, "energy": 10.956166, "activity_lines": [ 115.2, 114.563636, 115.095238, 115.432258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 116.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 115.966667, "fair_value": 122.50641, "relative_strength": -5.85954, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.156759, "energy": 8.660802, "activity_lines": [ 115.4, 114.890909, 115.147619, 115.432258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 109.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 115.733333, "fair_value": 122.403846, "relative_strength": -10.807059, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.54184, "energy": 29.698937, "activity_lines": [ 113.333333, 113.909091, 114.533333, 114.982796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 103.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 12.95, "trend": 115.133333, "fair_value": 122.262821, "relative_strength": -16.510273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.785869, "energy": 70.041543, "activity_lines": [ 109.8, 111.909091, 113.380952, 114.16129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 103.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.5, "trend": 114.533333, "fair_value": 122.121795, "relative_strength": -14.552424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.336455, "energy": 85.143735, "activity_lines": [ 106.8, 110.109091, 112.290476, 113.378495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 107.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 10.1, "trend": 114.233333, "fair_value": 122.00641, "relative_strength": -11.011064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.388462, "energy": 80.753187, "activity_lines": [ 106.0, 109.236364, 111.638095, 112.892473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 11.05, "trend": 113.7, "fair_value": 121.826923, "relative_strength": -16.790991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.112368, "energy": 93.400355, "activity_lines": [ 103.466667, 107.145455, 110.380952, 111.974194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.0, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 12.85, "trend": 113.166667, "fair_value": 121.647436, "relative_strength": -17.661634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.899409, "energy": 91.430591, "activity_lines": [ 102.0, 105.363636, 109.190476, 111.090323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 112.8, "fair_value": 121.474359, "relative_strength": -15.172218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.486482, "energy": 80.020388, "activity_lines": [ 102.8, 104.8, 108.542857, 110.563441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }