{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5acf4413-f374-4b87-8958-5145cc12ade1", "symbol": "GPRK34", "name": "GeoPark Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.848, "architecture_energy": 4.963, "architecture_maturity": 14.104, "architecture_confidence": 75.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.3, "rotation_up": 25.28, "upward_expansion": 50.81, "deceleration": 82.09, "rotation_down": 25.07, "downward_expansion": 22.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.559332, 49.798363, 49.872609, 49.164563 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.549999, "trend_reference": 47.768973, "distance_from_trend": -0.004584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.285789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.738319, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087561, "excess_performance": 0.144609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074349, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1298, "relative_activity": 1.058382, "balance": 0.867459, "dry_up": 0.702055, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082926, "annualized_volatility": 0.42267, "from_high_reference": -0.160636, "from_low_reference": 0.578277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.768973, "fair_value_reference": 43.285789, "structural_low": 40.310278, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003795, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.023317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146583, "worst_return": -0.134979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050483, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.229167, "worst_return": -0.099428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050669, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.323555, "worst_return": -0.106263, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.814798, "energy": 17.14677, "activity_lines": [ 49.824668, 50.496982, 49.455935, 48.128961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.470001, "volume": 1846, "typical_volume": 1514.45, "trend": 46.353503, "fair_value": 43.021963, "relative_strength": 9.516422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.269871, "energy": 20.745606, "activity_lines": [ 49.456001, 50.572189, 49.652067, 48.420005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.549999, "volume": 1225, "typical_volume": 1496.55, "trend": 46.70426, "fair_value": 43.086791, "relative_strength": 9.991894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.314471, "energy": 23.298156, "activity_lines": [ 49.064, 50.422384, 49.73067, 48.626231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.169998, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 1344.1, "trend": 47.106546, "fair_value": 43.165137, "relative_strength": 15.372542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.467103, "energy": 20.436685, "activity_lines": [ 50.018666, 50.676182, 50.023655, 48.978859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.889999, "volume": 633, "typical_volume": 1327.6, "trend": 47.455044, "fair_value": 43.232963, "relative_strength": 7.713154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.029574, "energy": 17.826387, "activity_lines": [ 50.261999, 50.453091, 50.066088, 49.158437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.549999, "volume": 1298, "typical_volume": 1226.4, "trend": 47.768973, "fair_value": 43.285789, "relative_strength": 5.738319, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.847756, "energy": 4.962719, "activity_lines": [ 49.559332, 49.798363, 49.872609, 49.164563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }