{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ad34e05-c35a-412d-b3e9-5ebd3a7add0b", "symbol": "2330", "name": "Advanced Petrochemical Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.382, "architecture_energy": 71.795, "architecture_maturity": 14.714, "architecture_confidence": 89.457, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.02, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 16.61, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 70.11, "downward_expansion": 89.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.677334, 23.229273, 24.452381, 24.657634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.84, "trend_reference": 24.932333, "distance_from_trend": -0.08392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.494551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318098, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.569373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067755, "excess_performance": -0.035926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318098, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2883207, "relative_activity": 0.630515, "balance": 0.582494, "dry_up": 0.558474, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058669, "annualized_volatility": 0.335703, "from_high_reference": -0.408903, "from_low_reference": 0.059861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.932333, "fair_value_reference": 33.494551, "structural_low": 21.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.018848, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008874, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.269545, "worst_return": -0.137868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022637, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.030981, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.156941, "worst_return": -0.210604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.068282, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.138715, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.30597, "worst_return": -0.291942, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 23.120001, "volume": 1734803, "typical_volume": 5457793.1, "trend": 25.335667, "fair_value": 33.798782, "relative_strength": -18.21192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.04066, "energy": 76.095566, "activity_lines": [ 23.096667, 23.975091, 24.966571, 25.017634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0, "volume": 2157300, "typical_volume": 4723625.6, "trend": 25.084333, "fair_value": 33.644936, "relative_strength": -20.168252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.471719, "energy": 82.866951, "activity_lines": [ 22.65, 23.484909, 24.667714, 24.80243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.84, "volume": 2883207, "typical_volume": 4572780.2, "trend": 24.932333, "fair_value": 33.494551, "relative_strength": -18.569373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.381598, "energy": 71.794785, "activity_lines": [ 22.677334, 23.229273, 24.452381, 24.657634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }