{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ad3a594-6b1c-4fb5-8d9d-5650ae7b563c", "symbol": "PRG", "name": "PRL Global Ltd.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.639, "architecture_energy": 35.801, "architecture_maturity": 64.142, "architecture_confidence": 95.928, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.86, "rotation_up": 29.34, "upward_expansion": 19.12, "deceleration": 43.58, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 66.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.270333, 1.260727, 1.360143, 1.412338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.1, "trend_reference": 1.443078, "distance_from_trend": -0.237741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.275343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.531849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148602, "excess_performance": -0.212308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.632232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.522566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.153002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16498, "relative_activity": 0.690872, "balance": 0.153002, "dry_up": 0.630131, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11958, "annualized_volatility": 0.680328, "from_high_reference": -0.43299, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.443078, "fair_value_reference": 1.275343, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.022633, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.043175, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.336364, "worst_return": -0.131817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.180968, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.104982, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.326019, "worst_return": -0.141667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001544, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.215517, "worst_return": -0.08586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.381579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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71.617962, "activity_lines": [ 1.221667, 1.369636, 1.484268, 1.478677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.145, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24166.45, "trend": 1.452415, "fair_value": 1.260965, "relative_strength": -24.198656, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.999163, "energy": 74.903328, "activity_lines": [ 1.175667, 1.306364, 1.449938, 1.45804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.265, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 24166.8, "trend": 1.443954, "fair_value": 1.264079, "relative_strength": -15.633886, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.890399, "energy": 71.456467, "activity_lines": [ 1.195, 1.274545, 1.427714, 1.445949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.465, "volume": 14433, "typical_volume": 24089.8, "trend": 1.44594, "fair_value": 1.26798, "relative_strength": -2.12452, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.331711, "energy": 35.651634, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.290636, 1.424643, 1.447307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.44, "volume": 25598, "typical_volume": 24739.0, "trend": 1.447915, "fair_value": 1.271719, "relative_strength": -3.476212, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.203452, "energy": 25.417129, "activity_lines": [ 1.353667, 1.309182, 1.419048, 1.446924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.26, "volume": 3661, "typical_volume": 24266.55, "trend": 1.448163, "fair_value": 1.274044, "relative_strength": -17.177188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.405629, "energy": 30.945774, "activity_lines": [ 1.342, 1.296909, 1.396286, 1.4348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.1, "volume": 16498, "typical_volume": 23879.95, "trend": 1.443078, "fair_value": 1.275343, "relative_strength": -29.531849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.638679, "energy": 35.800697, "activity_lines": [ 1.270333, 1.260727, 1.360143, 1.412338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }