{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ad52f15-a720-41dd-a7f2-a570e0489572", "symbol": "3110", "name": "Global X ETF Series - Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 92.285, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.498, "architecture_energy": 27.067, "architecture_maturity": 65.473, "architecture_confidence": 69.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.31, "rotation_up": 35.82, "upward_expansion": 22.46, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 58.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.958667, 30.538909, 31.065524, 31.49436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.9, "trend_reference": 31.885586, "distance_from_trend": -0.03091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.80139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.182127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049735, "excess_performance": -0.016154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000678, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298244, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168314, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001821, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2958917, "relative_activity": 0.866504, "balance": 0.984742, "dry_up": 1.370122, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03291, "annualized_volatility": 0.140868, "from_high_reference": -0.095511, "from_low_reference": 0.118875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.885586, "fair_value_reference": 23.80139, "structural_low": 28.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.019142, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013168, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.11906, "worst_return": -0.11142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027513, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035274, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.095073, "worst_return": -0.092532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042608, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.08029, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.20425, "worst_return": -0.103363, "sufficient": false }, { 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31.817603, "fair_value": 23.464038, "relative_strength": 2.57033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.711096, "energy": 88.543596, "activity_lines": [ 29.613334, 30.439273, 31.378868, 31.717883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.4, "volume": 3625896, "typical_volume": 3424479.35, "trend": 31.819069, "fair_value": 23.545704, "relative_strength": 3.454591, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.016286, "energy": 82.696074, "activity_lines": [ 29.774667, 30.298909, 31.226283, 31.626425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.84, "volume": 9529724, "typical_volume": 3592037.55, "trend": 31.833218, "fair_value": 23.626779, "relative_strength": 3.07539, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.878655, "energy": 51.125369, "activity_lines": [ 30.158667, 30.291637, 31.131823, 31.563259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.74, "volume": 2600097, "typical_volume": 3452666.55, "trend": 31.874724, "fair_value": 23.716001, "relative_strength": 2.143946, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.016964, "energy": 23.546987, "activity_lines": [ 30.793333, 30.486909, 31.135312, 31.557245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.9, "volume": 2958917, "typical_volume": 3414776.1, "trend": 31.885586, "fair_value": 23.80139, "relative_strength": 0.182127, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.498185, "energy": 27.066587, "activity_lines": [ 30.958667, 30.538909, 31.065524, 31.49436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }