{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ad5ef81-e71d-4586-98e9-ed692a21be60", "symbol": "XMXD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Europe, Middle East & Africa ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.783, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.21, "architecture_energy": 26.081, "architecture_maturity": 38.109, "architecture_confidence": 62.139, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.13, "rotation_up": 45.04, "upward_expansion": 47.62, "deceleration": 34.21, "rotation_down": 30.68, "downward_expansion": 15.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.747667, 50.464909, 50.292453, 50.162581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.959999, "trend_reference": 50.373, "distance_from_trend": 0.051357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.450055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.186523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000472, "excess_performance": -0.051707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011865, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000472, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 211.130345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220, "relative_activity": 0.009619, "balance": 211.130345, "dry_up": 4.408485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033741, "annualized_volatility": 0.277431, "from_high_reference": -0.037965, "from_low_reference": 0.262455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.373, "fair_value_reference": 38.450055, "structural_low": 44.060001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002584, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.05721, "worst_return": -0.079389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038302, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.032324, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.099935, "worst_return": -0.119593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183388, "worst_return": -0.175392, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.14122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", 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37.800696, "relative_strength": -1.692367, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.318169, "energy": 14.766725, "activity_lines": [ 50.392, 50.196819, 49.967548, 50.126753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.314999, "volume": 494, "typical_volume": 4148.95, "trend": 50.2295, "fair_value": 37.931113, "relative_strength": -0.290115, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.494688, "energy": 13.22494, "activity_lines": [ 50.422666, 50.239727, 50.008976, 50.139678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.380001, "volume": 364, "typical_volume": 4071.75, "trend": 50.266834, "fair_value": 38.055632, "relative_strength": -3.043364, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.640793, "energy": 14.343894, "activity_lines": [ 50.042333, 50.104637, 49.975262, 50.084871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.82, "volume": 523, "typical_volume": 3735.3, "trend": 50.252667, "fair_value": 38.169094, "relative_strength": -5.282733, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.66172, "energy": 28.597673, "activity_lines": [ 49.555, 49.890818, 49.912286, 49.991527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.220001, "volume": 402205, "typical_volume": 23575.15, "trend": 50.276, "fair_value": 38.29919, "relative_strength": -3.743073, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.023921, "energy": 19.231484, "activity_lines": [ 49.705667, 49.936818, 49.979881, 49.98942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.959999, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": 22871.35, "trend": 50.373, "fair_value": 38.450055, "relative_strength": 1.186523, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.21018, "energy": 26.080746, "activity_lines": [ 50.747667, 50.464909, 50.292453, 50.162581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }