{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ad9d4e5-1d5d-4fe5-b376-b4bb340655ff", "symbol": "ITB", "name": "Imperial Brands PLC", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.535, "architecture_energy": 13.758, "architecture_maturity": 21.449, "architecture_confidence": 57.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.81, "rotation_up": 34.23, "upward_expansion": 32.07, "deceleration": 44.66, "rotation_down": 21.74, "downward_expansion": 42.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.921334, 32.747455, 32.503548, 32.991649 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.57, "trend_reference": 33.725692, "distance_from_trend": -0.034267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.554587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.918035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131622, "excess_performance": -0.196262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.228142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140114, "relative_activity": 1.475453, "balance": 1.228142, "dry_up": 1.373263, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043005, "annualized_volatility": 0.22549, "from_high_reference": -0.134442, "from_low_reference": 0.053939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.725692, "fair_value_reference": 27.554587, "structural_low": 30.903123, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012639, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010006, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073906, "worst_return": -0.080189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024887, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.088268, "worst_return": -0.077034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.02769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071398, "worst_return": -0.016019, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012132, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.987677, "volume": 63393, "typical_volume": 87739.2, "trend": 18.181112, "fair_value": 15.502298, "relative_strength": -8.137544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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33.417997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.700001, "volume": 10298, "typical_volume": 86431.35, "trend": 34.070176, "fair_value": 27.079959, "relative_strength": -10.013046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.142258, "energy": 23.68985, "activity_lines": [ 32.346, 32.160429, 32.604585, 33.321888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.940001, "volume": 56232, "typical_volume": 85746.45, "trend": 33.957242, "fair_value": 27.171382, "relative_strength": -9.541139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.819767, "energy": 26.461962, "activity_lines": [ 32.247334, 32.139065, 32.457375, 33.184457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.82, "volume": 179424, "typical_volume": 90454.0, "trend": 33.903718, "fair_value": 27.271602, "relative_strength": -3.351113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.338343, "energy": 15.054505, "activity_lines": [ 32.766667, 32.463294, 32.511459, 33.175603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.970001, "volume": 128722, "typical_volume": 90953.35, "trend": 33.833585, "fair_value": 27.365019, "relative_strength": -6.793398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.670622, "energy": 15.172103, "activity_lines": [ 32.922001, 32.589819, 32.502728, 33.115363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.12, "volume": 73379, "typical_volume": 91406.55, "trend": 33.773987, "fair_value": 27.461566, "relative_strength": -8.187901, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.301926, "energy": 12.762776, "activity_lines": [ 33.034667, 32.723455, 32.521391, 33.069325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.57, "volume": 140114, "typical_volume": 94963.4, "trend": 33.725692, "fair_value": 27.554587, "relative_strength": -11.918035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.535252, "energy": 13.758055, "activity_lines": [ 32.921334, 32.747455, 32.503548, 32.991649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }