{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5adca260-6891-4094-8817-a7b291ad5f48", "symbol": "UFMB", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.865, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.863, "architecture_energy": 83.493, "architecture_maturity": 36.043, "architecture_confidence": 73.287, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 80.49, "upward_expansion": 94.1, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 9.24, "downward_expansion": 18.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.358333, 22.117545, 21.854405, 21.712613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.629999, "trend_reference": 21.541333, "distance_from_trend": 0.050538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.86499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266723, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.993561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06444, "excess_performance": -0.0002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266723, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044079, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.208729, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33189, "relative_activity": 0.881508, "balance": 3.208729, "dry_up": 1.821396, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017761, "annualized_volatility": 0.152402, "from_high_reference": -0.00418, "from_low_reference": 0.214707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.541333, "fair_value_reference": 17.86499, "structural_low": 19.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008709, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.001573, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.078227, "worst_return": -0.084391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011185, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.001178, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.120619, "worst_return": -0.03379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06338, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.016285, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.148585, "worst_return": -0.059213, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083984, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.144011, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053293, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.342, "volume": 3563, "typical_volume": 10417.15, "trend": 15.053867, "fair_value": 13.559276, "relative_strength": -7.770554, "stage": 3, "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.156433, "energy": 48.93775, "activity_lines": [ 21.765, 21.649546, 21.543691, 21.471419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.91, "volume": 55114, "typical_volume": 34487.75, "trend": 21.345833, "fair_value": 17.720369, "relative_strength": 4.336627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.091212, "energy": 56.764996, "activity_lines": [ 21.829, 21.717091, 21.584905, 21.511183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 50102, "typical_volume": 35076.25, "trend": 21.408333, "fair_value": 17.765907, "relative_strength": 4.312676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.762021, "energy": 67.137756, "activity_lines": [ 21.973667, 21.823273, 21.656333, 21.56629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.525, "volume": 135899, "typical_volume": 38532.8, "trend": 21.478667, "fair_value": 17.815144, "relative_strength": 3.4443, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.498657, "energy": 73.870429, "activity_lines": [ 22.174667, 21.968818, 21.753691, 21.638333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.629999, "volume": 33189, "typical_volume": 37650.25, "trend": 21.541333, "fair_value": 17.86499, "relative_strength": 0.993561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.863335, "energy": 83.492851, "activity_lines": [ 22.358333, 22.117545, 21.854405, 21.712613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }