{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ae146e9-52a8-41f8-9717-d07aaf30b243", "symbol": "PANW", "name": "Palo Alto Networks Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.946, "architecture_energy": 66.261, "architecture_maturity": 74.706, "architecture_confidence": 85.71, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 61.31, "upward_expansion": 84.86, "deceleration": 68.43, "rotation_down": 23.92, "downward_expansion": 11.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 344.084, 333.333455, 297.344143, 264.952269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 363.86, "trend_reference": 228.196833, "distance_from_trend": 0.594501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 181.703109, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.002497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 50.028396, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.283831, "excess_performance": 1.096378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.594501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.002497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.748724, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.500284, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.576996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.283831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.602017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31359124, "relative_activity": 0.837527, "balance": 2.602017, "dry_up": 0.820077, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102898, "annualized_volatility": 0.539139, "from_high_reference": -0.034803, "from_low_reference": 1.606996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.196833, "fair_value_reference": 181.703109, "structural_low": 139.5706, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.003019, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": 0.010173, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.279397, "worst_return": -0.162532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026608, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.014379, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.279213, "worst_return": -0.138122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105415, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.026901, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.346582, "worst_return": -0.041475, "sufficient": true }, { 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202.574833, "fair_value": 174.528942, "relative_strength": 52.330279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.685906, "energy": 80.328875, "activity_lines": [ 310.115333, 288.843273, 245.405048, 223.531935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 325.91, "volume": 40188525, "typical_volume": 41195875.0, "trend": 207.048833, "fair_value": 175.84484, "relative_strength": 39.181191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.717663, "energy": 69.840507, "activity_lines": [ 319.304667, 299.631091, 256.107167, 231.489043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 358.68, "volume": 31778529, "typical_volume": 38921444.3, "trend": 212.7755, "fair_value": 177.362596, "relative_strength": 58.261354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.957574, "energy": 73.494616, "activity_lines": [ 335.826667, 313.743818, 269.086381, 241.271699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 323.79, "volume": 29715776, "typical_volume": 38178949.15, "trend": 217.286833, "fair_value": 178.641891, "relative_strength": 44.222911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.431346, "energy": 66.473333, "activity_lines": [ 335.448, 318.771091, 277.743881, 248.433925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 331.83, "volume": 29969514, "typical_volume": 37889991.45, "trend": 222.368833, "fair_value": 180.069263, "relative_strength": 45.554237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.808108, "energy": 63.184774, "activity_lines": [ 335.348667, 323.788182, 286.41119, 255.823806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 363.86, "volume": 31359124, "typical_volume": 37442515.3, "trend": 228.196833, "fair_value": 181.703109, "relative_strength": 50.028396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.945808, "energy": 66.260865, "activity_lines": [ 344.084, 333.333455, 297.344143, 264.952269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }