{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ae242c9-bf79-4ae4-ab91-9c9eef8396c6", "symbol": "300863", "name": "Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.522, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.206, "architecture_energy": 42.545, "architecture_maturity": 15.116, "architecture_confidence": 48.721, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 18.83, "deceleration": 65.13, "rotation_down": 67.9, "downward_expansion": 43.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.469334, 46.279454, 49.958331, 48.141747 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.650002, "trend_reference": 45.620491, "distance_from_trend": -0.108953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.419938, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.538611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.739373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055206, "excess_performance": -0.062606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.538611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.825331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43930906, "relative_activity": 1.114272, "balance": 1.825331, "dry_up": 1.076374, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225705, "annualized_volatility": 0.751693, "from_high_reference": -0.451121, "from_low_reference": 0.635262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.620491, "fair_value_reference": 26.419938, "structural_low": 31.709999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.060028, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108295, "worst_return": -0.085789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037145, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057254, "worst_return": 0.017035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.184481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180383, "worst_return": -0.076629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": 5.892332, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.265899, "energy": 19.497468, "activity_lines": [ 52.821333, 57.444827, 53.484237, 49.91779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.189999, "volume": 45135103, "typical_volume": 36772076.8, "trend": 45.541777, "fair_value": 26.199923, "relative_strength": -8.936086, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.581082, "energy": 36.097565, "activity_lines": [ 45.477333, 53.196194, 52.182529, 49.24905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.189999, "volume": 37068733, "typical_volume": 37981344.7, "trend": 45.461428, "fair_value": 26.28341, "relative_strength": -12.98552, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.547914, "energy": 46.855611, "activity_lines": [ 39.610666, 48.831999, 50.705215, 48.452161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.650002, "volume": 43930906, "typical_volume": 39425665.45, "trend": 45.620491, "fair_value": 26.419938, "relative_strength": 0.739373, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.205605, "energy": 42.545234, "activity_lines": [ 38.469334, 46.279454, 49.958331, 48.141747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }