{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5af24cfa-03eb-4286-8e11-f88d4746f05a", "symbol": "002150", "name": "Jiangsu Chint Power Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.584, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.854, "architecture_energy": 70.958, "architecture_maturity": 16.927, "architecture_confidence": 81.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 10.58, "upward_expansion": 16.18, "deceleration": 37.83, "rotation_down": 70.47, "downward_expansion": 89.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.71, 23.077273, 25.576411, 26.79354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.139999, "trend_reference": 27.218753, "distance_from_trend": -0.18659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.684972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.275257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078214, "excess_performance": -0.085614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294095, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34322520, "relative_activity": 0.397854, "balance": 1.294095, "dry_up": 0.501485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165211, "annualized_volatility": 0.688831, "from_high_reference": -0.43797, "from_low_reference": 0.824635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.218753, "fair_value_reference": 16.684972, "structural_low": 19.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.039424, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.008214, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.176334, "worst_return": -0.086624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.067085, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.04449, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.10687, "worst_return": -0.098248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001877, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.075817, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.814346, "worst_return": -0.187696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 21.620001, "volume": 36457504, "typical_volume": 99843577.65, "trend": 27.069151, "fair_value": 16.59481, "relative_strength": -3.983825, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.638234, "energy": 61.021698, "activity_lines": [ 24.242667, 25.65928, 27.634761, 27.889774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.99, "volume": 59785362, "typical_volume": 98258435.45, "trend": 27.163716, "fair_value": 16.631118, "relative_strength": -3.40238, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.87566, "energy": 57.36332, "activity_lines": [ 23.272, 24.719077, 26.961994, 27.562087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.26, "volume": 42485509, "typical_volume": 93218142.25, "trend": 27.148768, "fair_value": 16.648712, "relative_strength": -10.164351, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.213407, "energy": 76.934247, "activity_lines": [ 22.028, 23.603273, 26.14832, 27.116686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 34322520, "typical_volume": 86269222.2, "trend": 27.218753, "fair_value": 16.684972, "relative_strength": -7.275257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.854339, "energy": 70.95813, "activity_lines": [ 21.71, 23.077273, 25.576411, 26.79354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }