{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5af2ec65-3735-4c92-b965-d710a4f752d0", "symbol": "603565", "name": "Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.513, "architecture_energy": 8.05, "architecture_maturity": 18.755, "architecture_confidence": 85.451, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.04, "rotation_up": 43.34, "upward_expansion": 31.44, "deceleration": 42.49, "rotation_down": 22.01, "downward_expansion": 22.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.422667, 10.304364, 10.355112, 10.437553 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.39, "trend_reference": 10.433583, "distance_from_trend": -0.004177, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.666434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.45124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039352, "excess_performance": 0.082556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004177, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004512, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.291895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71539493, "relative_activity": 1.199989, "balance": 1.291895, "dry_up": 1.147366, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054728, "annualized_volatility": 0.244447, "from_high_reference": -0.142535, "from_low_reference": 0.123369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.433583, "fair_value_reference": 8.666434, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018924, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.009846, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099241, "worst_return": -0.125484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024886, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.001258, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.151171, "worst_return": -0.109677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040292, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043888, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.181078, "worst_return": -0.273148, 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10.12, 10.248207, 10.502118, 10.476188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.29, "volume": 9165230, "typical_volume": 63268557.2, "trend": 10.418811, "fair_value": 8.609744, "relative_strength": -3.02056, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.441006, "energy": 16.072118, "activity_lines": [ 10.176667, 10.234722, 10.474307, 10.468445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.92, "volume": 64344387, "typical_volume": 63030221.6, "trend": 10.401925, "fair_value": 8.617439, "relative_strength": -5.295458, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.794386, "energy": 19.409902, "activity_lines": [ 10.117333, 10.157336, 10.410094, 10.436264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.03, "volume": 51996333, "typical_volume": 62682247.05, "trend": 10.396523, "fair_value": 8.626096, "relative_strength": 1.620495, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.718174, "energy": 20.104864, "activity_lines": [ 10.086, 10.112359, 10.357512, 10.412269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.43, "volume": 73350093, "typical_volume": 59779610.8, "trend": 10.397289, "fair_value": 8.638811, "relative_strength": 4.243453, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.887264, "energy": 10.783283, "activity_lines": [ 10.180667, 10.160111, 10.345799, 10.414428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.78, "volume": 76723181, "typical_volume": 59770417.05, "trend": 10.414281, "fair_value": 8.654284, "relative_strength": 7.179281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.899368, "energy": 8.088274, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 10.270727, 10.369124, 10.439119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.39, "volume": 71539493, "typical_volume": 59616811.25, "trend": 10.433583, "fair_value": 8.666434, "relative_strength": 0.45124, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.512682, "energy": 8.050226, "activity_lines": [ 10.422667, 10.304364, 10.355112, 10.437553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }