{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5af4a7af-a533-4c59-b2a9-3662f3953aed", "symbol": "PST", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULSHT 7-10Y", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.412, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.348, "architecture_energy": 70.64, "architecture_maturity": 8.903, "architecture_confidence": 67.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 72.44, "upward_expansion": 91.69, "deceleration": 42.58, "rotation_down": 11.19, "downward_expansion": 16.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.425333, 23.222033, 23.028692, 22.840036 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.4, "trend_reference": 22.580684, "distance_from_trend": 0.036284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.167963, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.287263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060093, "excess_performance": -0.065532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030698, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40398, "relative_activity": 0.877815, "balance": 0.62676, "dry_up": 0.704101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018643, "annualized_volatility": 0.102404, "from_high_reference": -0.015122, "from_low_reference": 0.100548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.580684, "fair_value_reference": 22.167963, "structural_low": 21.288, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.012681, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.01174, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.10452, "worst_return": -0.058757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013595, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004562, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186116, "worst_return": -0.076621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013779, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.165479, "worst_return": -0.024896, "sufficient": true }, { 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22.422754, "fair_value": 22.11602, "relative_strength": -4.459547, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.789384, "energy": 36.94979, "activity_lines": [ 22.974201, 22.936847, 22.813246, 22.63975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.54, "volume": 14470, "typical_volume": 50748.85, "trend": 22.479907, "fair_value": 22.135404, "relative_strength": -1.880161, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.537055, "energy": 67.155702, "activity_lines": [ 23.188667, 23.043938, 22.894841, 22.71183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.6, "volume": 34540, "typical_volume": 49143.35, "trend": 22.532912, "fair_value": 22.153778, "relative_strength": -2.455152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.618454, "energy": 75.786768, "activity_lines": [ 23.375333, 23.155983, 22.974318, 22.784094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.4, "volume": 40398, "typical_volume": 46021.1, "trend": 22.580684, "fair_value": 22.167963, "relative_strength": -6.287263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.347891, "energy": 70.640297, "activity_lines": [ 23.425333, 23.222033, 23.028692, 22.840036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }