{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5af4dcc5-d4c0-4bfc-9fee-3a57a77bb030", "symbol": "IB", "name": "Iniziative Bresciane S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.69, "architecture_energy": 93.404, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 21.36, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 88.13, "downward_expansion": 99.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.326667, 8.977273, 9.945059, 10.46236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.9, "trend_reference": 11.034215, "distance_from_trend": -0.284045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.627463, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.015555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.346929, "excess_performance": -0.517821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.075885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10818, "relative_activity": 1.996107, "balance": 0.075885, "dry_up": 3.146387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076436, "annualized_volatility": 0.244856, "from_high_reference": -0.417915, "from_low_reference": 0.089655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.034215, "fair_value_reference": 12.627463, "structural_low": 7.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.014544, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.071463, "worst_return": -0.117949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067505, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.051282, "worst_return": -0.054054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020191, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.167318, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103441, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-31.988711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.815826, "energy": 96.330265, "activity_lines": [ 9.603333, 10.140909, 10.763961, 11.068852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.6, "volume": 15942, "typical_volume": 4020.2, "trend": 11.277934, "fair_value": 12.699201, "relative_strength": -34.920246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.625292, "energy": 96.847295, "activity_lines": [ 9.216667, 9.779091, 10.517676, 10.890466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.9, "volume": 34856, "typical_volume": 5309.6, "trend": 11.157714, "fair_value": 12.663332, "relative_strength": -39.945842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.988339, "energy": 96.650537, "activity_lines": [ 8.71, 9.342727, 10.221376, 10.672535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 10818, "typical_volume": 5419.55, "trend": 11.034215, "fair_value": 12.627463, "relative_strength": -41.015555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.68965, "energy": 93.404214, "activity_lines": [ 8.326667, 8.977273, 9.945059, 10.46236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }