{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5afa72da-0adf-4dfd-a80d-e485cbd3a531", "symbol": "AMBA", "name": "Ambarella Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.003, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.962, "architecture_energy": 40.277, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.8, "rotation_up": 53.86, "upward_expansion": 79.82, "deceleration": 51.5, "rotation_down": 19.69, "downward_expansion": 8.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.870667, 75.132182, 73.092, 69.858516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 86.78, "trend_reference": 66.874167, "distance_from_trend": 0.297661, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.427853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390085, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.332659, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.363608, "excess_performance": 0.176154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.297661, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053327, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.363608, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.517734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8630617, "relative_activity": 1.223645, "balance": 1.517734, "dry_up": 1.481086, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185772, "annualized_volatility": 0.810393, "from_high_reference": -0.102493, "from_low_reference": 0.796687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.874167, "fair_value_reference": 62.427853, "structural_low": 48.3, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.069475, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.077447, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.33515, "worst_return": -0.250856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.114783, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001468, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.51892, "worst_return": -0.421846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005995, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103462, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.553015, "worst_return": -0.323242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.255891, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.233756, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.591451, "worst_return": -0.318289, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.254993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054411, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188537, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.55138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"direction": 21.035109, "energy": 9.957653, "activity_lines": [ 69.847333, 70.208909, 69.139405, 67.111301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.06, "volume": 8047821, "typical_volume": 6237531.7, "trend": 65.9285, "fair_value": 62.269455, "relative_strength": -12.457364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.805234, "energy": 14.93651, "activity_lines": [ 69.227333, 69.46, 69.396429, 67.241634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.0, "volume": 17621740, "typical_volume": 6929242.0, "trend": 66.289833, "fair_value": 62.332404, "relative_strength": 9.836956, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.516697, "energy": 29.60413, "activity_lines": [ 74.714667, 72.211091, 71.287333, 68.53657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.78, "volume": 8630617, "typical_volume": 7053204.4, "trend": 66.874167, "fair_value": 62.427853, "relative_strength": 5.332659, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.961793, "energy": 40.276561, "activity_lines": [ 78.870667, 75.132182, 73.092, 69.858516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }