{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5afc7c2e-8ace-436d-8766-39b7c7d3dcf9", "symbol": "CADLR", "name": "Cadeler A/S", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.789, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.382, "architecture_energy": 26.191, "architecture_maturity": 16.477, "architecture_confidence": 61.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.3, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 14.21, "deceleration": 60.25, "rotation_down": 39.71, "downward_expansion": 61.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.173334, 55.121818, 57.059762, 57.815699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.150002, "trend_reference": 58.331667, "distance_from_trend": -0.037401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.357564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.601034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040991, "excess_performance": -0.165984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1193355, "relative_activity": 0.368774, "balance": 0.36997, "dry_up": 0.529328, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070553, "annualized_volatility": 0.357865, "from_high_reference": -0.187409, "from_low_reference": 0.416499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.331667, "fair_value_reference": 54.357564, "structural_low": 51.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022534, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.016977, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.326761, "worst_return": -0.066202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037024, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058011, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.348457, "worst_return": -0.105704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043388, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.166928, "worst_return": -0.073171, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.497435, "energy": 45.791326, "activity_lines": [ 54.926666, 56.299091, 58.327857, 58.46572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.849998, "volume": 2678271, "typical_volume": 3400365.05, "trend": 57.741333, "fair_value": 54.0825, "relative_strength": -4.351023, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.033924, "energy": 23.006411, "activity_lines": [ 55.743332, 55.982727, 58.124762, 58.430086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.650002, "volume": 1616119, "typical_volume": 3393215.55, "trend": 57.975, "fair_value": 54.168077, "relative_strength": -9.934029, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.465705, "energy": 17.578984, "activity_lines": [ 55.6, 55.459091, 57.734286, 58.230645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.549999, "volume": 1363901, "typical_volume": 3376458.05, "trend": 58.156667, "fair_value": 54.252884, "relative_strength": -11.857193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.404855, "energy": 36.651367, "activity_lines": [ 54.963333, 54.978182, 57.256429, 57.945161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.150002, "volume": 1193355, "typical_volume": 3236010.4, "trend": 58.331667, "fair_value": 54.357564, "relative_strength": -7.601034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.38227, "energy": 26.190926, "activity_lines": [ 55.173334, 55.121818, 57.059762, 57.815699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }