{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5afcc09d-3ff7-44a0-9e7a-7a538cf3494f", "symbol": "SKC", "name": "SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.632, "architecture_energy": 20.918, "architecture_maturity": 95.651, "architecture_confidence": 53.613, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.69, "rotation_up": 43.08, "upward_expansion": 32.1, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 15.88, "downward_expansion": 47.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.505, 0.484545, 0.47681, 0.509613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.51, "trend_reference": 0.571833, "distance_from_trend": -0.108132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.146531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.55518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.922383, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.328947, "excess_performance": -0.392653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.55518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05246, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.17276, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 898630, "relative_activity": 0.648597, "balance": 1.17276, "dry_up": 1.726924, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085596, "annualized_volatility": 0.468937, "from_high_reference": -0.451613, "from_low_reference": 0.342105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.571833, "fair_value_reference": 1.146531, "structural_low": 0.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.009378, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003118, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.176119, "worst_return": -0.319149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.023962, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.056248, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.095341, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.076831, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.104, "worst_return": -0.472574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.04461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1380849.7, "trend": 0.5895, "fair_value": 1.16576, "relative_strength": -18.002264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.784379, "energy": 24.050089, "activity_lines": [ 0.480333, 0.461364, 0.474286, 0.518677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 676022, "typical_volume": 1390456.5, "trend": 0.581, "fair_value": 1.155965, "relative_strength": -18.890729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.044879, "energy": 21.923623, "activity_lines": [ 0.496333, 0.474727, 0.47569, 0.514194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.51, "volume": 898630, "typical_volume": 1385497.4, "trend": 0.571833, "fair_value": 1.146531, "relative_strength": -21.922383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.631828, "energy": 20.917614, "activity_lines": [ 0.505, 0.484545, 0.47681, 0.509613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }