{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5afe6911-f4cd-4b22-8301-c17ecf624b72", "symbol": "300461", "name": "Tanac Automation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.64, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.887, "architecture_energy": 84.833, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 11.13, "upward_expansion": 21.68, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 75.86, "downward_expansion": 97.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.423334, 33.457818, 40.616095, 44.461527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.940001, "trend_reference": 45.651667, "distance_from_trend": -0.300354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.474744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.324217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069076, "excess_performance": -0.076476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.300354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136811, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.26725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.765491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18335685, "relative_activity": 0.529306, "balance": 0.193641, "dry_up": 0.573278, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202037, "annualized_volatility": 1.039862, "from_high_reference": -0.588137, "from_low_reference": 0.836688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.651667, "fair_value_reference": 24.474744, "structural_low": 24.870001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093489, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.035609, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.198626, "worst_return": -0.274074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010573, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.032685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30166, "worst_return": -0.172474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129661, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.082433, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.356615, "worst_return": -0.28438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.187961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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48.367619, 48.333054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.209999, "volume": 18629052, "typical_volume": 38814111.2, "trend": 44.580334, "fair_value": 24.313782, "relative_strength": -12.800968, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.656355, "energy": 71.4723, "activity_lines": [ 35.113999, 39.155999, 46.179667, 47.361376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.4, "volume": 22654011, "typical_volume": 38446963.15, "trend": 44.884334, "fair_value": 24.351474, "relative_strength": -15.770019, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.027412, "energy": 76.541928, "activity_lines": [ 32.27, 36.548363, 44.029286, 46.317484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.4, "volume": 19816953, "typical_volume": 37181018.2, "trend": 45.223, "fair_value": 24.401667, "relative_strength": -11.775598, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.58986, "energy": 76.726208, "activity_lines": [ 30.639333, 34.587454, 42.130571, 45.318495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.940001, "volume": 18335685, "typical_volume": 34640976.35, "trend": 45.651667, "fair_value": 24.474744, "relative_strength": -9.324217, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.886555, "energy": 84.833398, "activity_lines": [ 30.423334, 33.457818, 40.616095, 44.461527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }