{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b039a2e-bcca-47af-b842-5e02a2b364f1", "symbol": "JHSF3", "name": "JHSF Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.963, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.498, "architecture_energy": 9.662, "architecture_maturity": 34.864, "architecture_confidence": 72.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.17, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 47.0, "deceleration": 76.81, "rotation_down": 22.48, "downward_expansion": 25.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.919518, 10.939257, 11.074792, 10.855271 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.79, "trend_reference": 10.439122, "distance_from_trend": 0.033612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.487516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.966281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.468816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136443, "excess_performance": 0.193491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131376, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.966281, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.214688, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9791500, "relative_activity": 0.499509, "balance": 0.798906, "dry_up": 0.685337, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066425, "annualized_volatility": 0.520842, "from_high_reference": -0.247057, "from_low_reference": 1.196511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.439122, "fair_value_reference": 5.487516, "structural_low": 8.128063, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000549, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006502, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.587033, "worst_return": -0.177525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005577, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00225, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.34037, "worst_return": -0.202437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114185, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915162, "worst_return": -0.314252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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24.355097, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.871562, "energy": 17.617387, "activity_lines": [ 10.964578, 10.951575, 11.078001, 10.772309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.06, "volume": 16662900, "typical_volume": 19991960.0, "trend": 10.341027, "fair_value": 5.446585, "relative_strength": 21.83135, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.906865, "energy": 18.038312, "activity_lines": [ 10.982048, 10.975704, 11.095511, 10.826305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.79, "volume": 9791500, "typical_volume": 19602265.0, "trend": 10.439122, "fair_value": 5.487516, "relative_strength": 21.468816, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.498046, "energy": 9.661582, "activity_lines": [ 10.919518, 10.939257, 11.074792, 10.855271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }