{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b04f350-75a7-4ebc-b657-3d816ef1c7ac", "symbol": "300790", "name": "DongGuan YuTong Optical Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.468, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.911, "architecture_energy": 62.189, "architecture_maturity": 15.942, "architecture_confidence": 79.322, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.3, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 28.13, "deceleration": 49.66, "rotation_down": 71.41, "downward_expansion": 55.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.275334, 19.687091, 21.336156, 21.145165 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.83, "trend_reference": 20.958677, "distance_from_trend": -0.149278, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.892376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.018894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071403, "excess_performance": -0.078803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149278, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.514582, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115273069, "relative_activity": 0.928177, "balance": 1.375088, "dry_up": 0.977951, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170072, "annualized_volatility": 0.680868, "from_high_reference": -0.397635, "from_low_reference": 0.208814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.958677, "fair_value_reference": 14.892376, "structural_low": 14.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071795, "worst_return": -0.132888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129124, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.100808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504568, "worst_return": 0.004975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.161172, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.182848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.476002, "worst_return": -0.003731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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109739615, "typical_volume": 119207629.05, "trend": 21.225863, "fair_value": 14.807947, "relative_strength": -24.489317, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.651799, "energy": 41.998512, "activity_lines": [ 19.164, 21.571226, 22.157737, 21.652212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 122967100, "typical_volume": 121051657.1, "trend": 21.073359, "fair_value": 14.844048, "relative_strength": -19.80677, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.778703, "energy": 55.252394, "activity_lines": [ 17.703334, 20.430714, 21.68358, 21.354414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.83, "volume": 115273069, "typical_volume": 124192979.4, "trend": 20.958677, "fair_value": 14.892376, "relative_strength": -18.018894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.911052, "energy": 62.189352, "activity_lines": [ 17.275334, 19.687091, 21.336156, 21.145165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }