{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b0b026c-5abf-465b-ba03-ac562eae9731", "symbol": "CIGN", "name": "Companhia Energ\u00e9tica de Minas Gerais - CEMIG", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.566, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.491, "architecture_energy": 31.203, "architecture_maturity": 48.402, "architecture_confidence": 60.106, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.71, "rotation_up": 44.56, "upward_expansion": 31.09, "deceleration": 47.94, "rotation_down": 21.86, "downward_expansion": 35.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.886, 37.393981, 38.351656, 38.830092 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.0, "trend_reference": 38.636788, "distance_from_trend": -0.016481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.381334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.95531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125044, "excess_performance": 0.17971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074013, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019553, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125044, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.365854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.365854, "dry_up": 0.775862, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020436, "annualized_volatility": 0.388696, "from_high_reference": -0.190591, "from_low_reference": 0.128684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.636788, "fair_value_reference": 35.381334, "structural_low": 33.77647, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001032, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.036815, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.240749, "worst_return": -0.077256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005338, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024993, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105225, "worst_return": -0.075295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013033, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.16407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.100761, "worst_return": -0.049163, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"close": 38.0, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 11.05, "trend": 38.355219, "fair_value": 35.309689, "relative_strength": 2.680321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.361735, "energy": 34.914763, "activity_lines": [ 37.266487, 37.099614, 38.6833, 38.88501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.05, "trend": 38.496003, "fair_value": 35.345512, "relative_strength": 1.915267, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.009108, "energy": 30.551499, "activity_lines": [ 37.658, 37.243574, 38.517389, 38.862093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.8, "trend": 38.636788, "fair_value": 35.381334, "relative_strength": 1.95531, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.491368, "energy": 31.203472, "activity_lines": [ 37.886, 37.393981, 38.351656, 38.830092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }