{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b0b66cf-906a-41da-9b5f-88c80958fdff", "symbol": "RGTI", "name": "Rigetti Computing Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.757, "architecture_energy": 42.113, "architecture_maturity": 4.898, "architecture_confidence": 75.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.92, "rotation_up": 9.0, "upward_expansion": 13.17, "deceleration": 48.74, "rotation_down": 65.47, "downward_expansion": 76.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.780667, 16.636727, 18.12719, 17.96043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.94, "trend_reference": 18.143667, "distance_from_trend": -0.011225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.586634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.69459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.854097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012987, "excess_performance": -0.174467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.69459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119138755, "relative_activity": 0.708789, "balance": 0.84799, "dry_up": 0.666147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242427, "annualized_volatility": 0.969316, "from_high_reference": -0.691488, "from_low_reference": 0.431764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.143667, "fair_value_reference": 10.586634, "structural_low": 12.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0214, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -1.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 1.883781, "worst_return": -0.533364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.466131, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.250211, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 23.232386, "worst_return": -0.615407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.681874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.552583, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 18.173387, "worst_return": -0.77512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -41.726356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.739578, "energy": 54.091667, "activity_lines": [ 15.403333, 17.578364, 18.417857, 18.227376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 108740308, "typical_volume": 168345292.8, "trend": 18.369667, "fair_value": 10.486249, "relative_strength": -38.639972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.076697, "energy": 54.888264, "activity_lines": [ 14.98, 16.731455, 18.127238, 17.988151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.94, "volume": 119138755, "typical_volume": 168087739.95, "trend": 18.143667, "fair_value": 10.586634, "relative_strength": -29.854097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.756644, "energy": 42.11287, "activity_lines": [ 15.780667, 16.636727, 18.12719, 17.96043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }