{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b0ddada-3d1a-430a-a846-a6bae83a8bcf", "symbol": "ESEG", "name": "iShares MSCI Europe CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.436, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.407, "architecture_energy": 81.06, "architecture_maturity": 39.706, "architecture_confidence": 79.572, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 65.6, "upward_expansion": 90.76, "deceleration": 48.8, "rotation_down": 21.85, "downward_expansion": 17.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.8566, 9.787909, 9.610205, 9.462942 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.024, "trend_reference": 9.310467, "distance_from_trend": 0.076638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.909846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267281, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.700743, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093845, "excess_performance": -0.077046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267281, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017811, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.122595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317464, "relative_activity": 1.728829, "balance": 1.122595, "dry_up": 1.717471, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01788, "annualized_volatility": 0.150897, "from_high_reference": -0.005358, "from_low_reference": 0.251748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.310467, "fair_value_reference": 7.909846, "structural_low": 8.331, "invalidation": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.346037, "energy": 81.20338, "activity_lines": [ 9.719067, 9.609545, 9.406805, 9.307729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.683, "volume": 452585, "typical_volume": 163905.3, "trend": 9.208667, "fair_value": 7.846846, "relative_strength": -3.941395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.631594, "energy": 76.979041, "activity_lines": [ 9.7178, 9.642436, 9.447576, 9.340419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.758, "volume": 324466, "typical_volume": 175686.3, "trend": 9.243067, "fair_value": 7.866346, "relative_strength": -2.94234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.597924, "energy": 73.947658, "activity_lines": [ 9.7346, 9.679945, 9.49449, 9.37586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.846, "volume": 166998, "typical_volume": 176307.15, "trend": 9.277167, "fair_value": 7.887564, "relative_strength": -2.684742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.890784, "energy": 62.536632, "activity_lines": [ 9.7728, 9.721382, 9.546195, 9.414759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.024, "volume": 317464, "typical_volume": 183629.45, "trend": 9.310467, "fair_value": 7.909846, "relative_strength": -3.700743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.406509, "energy": 81.060292, "activity_lines": [ 9.8566, 9.787909, 9.610205, 9.462942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }