{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b0febe5-39f5-47fc-9767-dc5eb5b5580d", "symbol": "GSCU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Energy & Metals Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF USD Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.51, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.556, "architecture_energy": 15.875, "architecture_maturity": 32.737, "architecture_confidence": 61.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.53, "rotation_up": 43.57, "upward_expansion": 27.17, "deceleration": 50.13, "rotation_down": 21.8, "downward_expansion": 29.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.401433, 19.188476, 19.538397, 19.579356 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.5776, "trend_reference": 19.39892, "distance_from_trend": 0.009211, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.635858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.13966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08863, "excess_performance": 0.035319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009211, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031397, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600, "relative_activity": 0.697163, "balance": 0.360937, "dry_up": 0.277793, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028396, "annualized_volatility": 0.147872, "from_high_reference": -0.088842, "from_low_reference": 0.397182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.39892, "fair_value_reference": 14.635858, "structural_low": 17.452499, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000498, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025571, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03177, "worst_return": -0.097224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062701, "worst_return": -0.107663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.138545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070071, "worst_return": -0.146447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03159, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.056844, "energy": 66.688683, "activity_lines": [ 18.741154, 19.126626, 19.615412, 19.515703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.6404, "volume": 307, "typical_volume": 4570.45, "trend": 19.20839, "fair_value": 14.550687, "relative_strength": 8.451474, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.744029, "energy": 31.408553, "activity_lines": [ 19.040567, 19.143976, 19.598601, 19.550504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.3876, "volume": 543, "typical_volume": 4300.35, "trend": 19.309617, "fair_value": 14.592567, "relative_strength": 4.971522, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.257842, "energy": 14.964236, "activity_lines": [ 19.222534, 19.13674, 19.55754, 19.562066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.5776, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 3729.4, "trend": 19.39892, "fair_value": 14.635858, "relative_strength": 3.13966, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.556133, "energy": 15.875374, "activity_lines": [ 19.401433, 19.188476, 19.538397, 19.579356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }