{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b10113a-a5ad-4dbc-b598-623f6832f326", "symbol": "SGR", "name": "$ Sheffield Green", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.312, "architecture_energy": 37.947, "architecture_maturity": 58.074, "architecture_confidence": 58.781, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 11.93, "upward_expansion": 13.53, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 68.72, "downward_expansion": 70.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.168867, 0.171855, 0.170624, 0.17112 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.167, "trend_reference": 0.172164, "distance_from_trend": -0.029995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.179704, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.311229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034743, "excess_performance": -0.189579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.310634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.310634, "dry_up": 0.286558, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034086, "annualized_volatility": 0.19279, "from_high_reference": -0.232184, "from_low_reference": 0.197433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.172164, "fair_value_reference": 0.179704, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035327, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053663, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.072222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05692, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.054057, "worst_return": -0.059782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.013697, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013697, "worst_return": 0.013697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.052666, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.367723, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.052666, "worst_return": -0.052666, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070654, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028409, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-16.660887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.950241, "energy": 34.507718, "activity_lines": [ 0.176467, 0.173582, 0.171586, 0.172333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30325.0, "trend": 0.174344, "fair_value": 0.179882, "relative_strength": -17.375119, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.081822, "energy": 17.462589, "activity_lines": [ 0.174, 0.173382, 0.171424, 0.172025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.167, "volume": 34900, "typical_volume": 31320.0, "trend": 0.173683, "fair_value": 0.179792, "relative_strength": -18.828709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.089064, "energy": 24.176801, "activity_lines": [ 0.171067, 0.172636, 0.171005, 0.171552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.167, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31320.0, "trend": 0.172164, "fair_value": 0.179704, "relative_strength": -19.311229, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.311775, "energy": 37.946949, "activity_lines": [ 0.168867, 0.171855, 0.170624, 0.17112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }