{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b14893d-fc13-4df4-a2c8-6036353b1a95", "symbol": "NOV", "name": "NOV Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.312, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.027, "architecture_energy": 21.027, "architecture_maturity": 22.797, "architecture_confidence": 55.167, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.84, "rotation_up": 48.58, "upward_expansion": 63.69, "deceleration": 63.95, "rotation_down": 16.27, "downward_expansion": 11.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.745333, 19.462992, 19.558193, 19.466972 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.65, "trend_reference": 19.261757, "distance_from_trend": 0.020156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.301812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.864025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053374, "excess_performance": -0.072251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020156, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01191, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02864, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.789378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13918343, "relative_activity": 0.675445, "balance": 1.789378, "dry_up": 0.856511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076634, "annualized_volatility": 0.357837, "from_high_reference": -0.084283, "from_low_reference": 0.709395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.261757, "fair_value_reference": 16.301812, "structural_low": 17.664928, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008378, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.008631, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.318233, "worst_return": -0.187678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054969, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.268251, "worst_return": -0.204315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049507, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.26774, "worst_return": -0.168553, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.170328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": 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19.389521, 19.244807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.52, "volume": 13730517, "typical_volume": 21715738.55, "trend": 18.896757, "fair_value": 16.279172, "relative_strength": 8.000309, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.617797, "energy": 15.617524, "activity_lines": [ 18.88, 19.247778, 19.406741, 19.293751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.76, "volume": 18106569, "typical_volume": 21314111.35, "trend": 19.075129, "fair_value": 16.297053, "relative_strength": 14.952204, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.35437, "energy": 16.485734, "activity_lines": [ 19.55, 19.467005, 19.544277, 19.413961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.43, "volume": 24842233, "typical_volume": 21504737.85, "trend": 19.183191, "fair_value": 16.300096, "relative_strength": 5.858744, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.962088, "energy": 17.201382, "activity_lines": [ 19.636667, 19.434099, 19.543521, 19.436855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.65, "volume": 13918343, "typical_volume": 20606181.0, "trend": 19.261757, "fair_value": 16.301812, "relative_strength": 2.864025, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.027054, "energy": 21.027096, "activity_lines": [ 19.745333, 19.462992, 19.558193, 19.466972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }