{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b25ad8a-d969-41e0-ba59-cd695b7e3598", "symbol": "ORX", "name": "Orexo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.169, "architecture_energy": 83.974, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 34.33, "rotation_down": 78.8, "downward_expansion": 92.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.472, 18.022, 19.085, 20.210968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.68, "trend_reference": 22.362334, "distance_from_trend": -0.343539, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.225128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.840894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.481272, "excess_performance": -0.542766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.343539, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.478409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.481272, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162093, "relative_activity": 0.831846, "balance": 0.561894, "dry_up": 1.410043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183505, "annualized_volatility": 0.676485, "from_high_reference": -0.661751, "from_low_reference": 0.071533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.362334, "fair_value_reference": 19.225128, "structural_low": 13.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.035925, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.03312, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.707171, "worst_return": -0.268966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.055005, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031434, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.634981, "worst_return": -0.388372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.102505, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.048761, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.443396, "worst_return": -0.427027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.342975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.231729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 23.28, 21.991818, 21.330953, 22.45914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.48, "volume": 444544, "typical_volume": 183499.55, "trend": 24.018334, "fair_value": 19.281923, "relative_strength": -43.448264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.440449, "energy": 25.098845, "activity_lines": [ 20.863334, 20.988, 20.732286, 21.890925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.24, "volume": 192612, "typical_volume": 187055.5, "trend": 23.616334, "fair_value": 19.267692, "relative_strength": -44.823455, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.691104, "energy": 53.873572, "activity_lines": [ 18.714667, 19.995091, 20.171334, 21.324581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 299792, "typical_volume": 192889.2, "trend": 23.024667, "fair_value": 19.248333, "relative_strength": -47.134111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.93992, "energy": 79.972761, "activity_lines": [ 16.77, 18.962909, 19.607334, 20.749334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.68, "volume": 162093, "typical_volume": 194859.5, "trend": 22.362334, "fair_value": 19.225128, "relative_strength": -47.840894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.168506, "energy": 83.974438, "activity_lines": [ 15.472, 18.022, 19.085, 20.210968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }