{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b3109d8-08d1-4e64-8caf-c177467f9528", "symbol": "603815", "name": "Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.828, "architecture_energy": 53.925, "architecture_maturity": 30.113, "architecture_confidence": 89.136, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 11.98, "deceleration": 39.27, "rotation_down": 65.89, "downward_expansion": 85.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.415333, 5.554909, 5.979571, 6.170688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 6.496, "distance_from_trend": -0.176416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.335852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.52539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227994, "excess_performance": -0.18479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51569116, "relative_activity": 0.597268, "balance": 0.569628, "dry_up": 0.941735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155284, "annualized_volatility": 0.664055, "from_high_reference": -0.641661, "from_low_reference": 0.096311 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.496, "fair_value_reference": 7.335852, "structural_low": 4.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.009063, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.008875, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.309278, "worst_return": -0.223097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014766, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.001509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.237017, "worst_return": -0.167364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024692, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.256318, "worst_return": -0.21564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 90095918, "typical_volume": 86518937.65, "trend": 6.651333, "fair_value": 7.351494, "relative_strength": -40.475302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.312173, "energy": 44.615534, "activity_lines": [ 5.573333, 5.748182, 6.145619, 6.328559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.42, "volume": 65351123, "typical_volume": 87018398.5, "trend": 6.565667, "fair_value": 7.344398, "relative_strength": -34.376289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.735144, "energy": 37.622613, "activity_lines": [ 5.518667, 5.644, 6.063048, 6.249118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 51569116, "typical_volume": 86341598.8, "trend": 6.496, "fair_value": 7.335852, "relative_strength": -36.52539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.827592, "energy": 53.925425, "activity_lines": [ 5.415333, 5.554909, 5.979571, 6.170688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }