{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b45cdd9-62e3-49e1-abf5-b062969e8308", "symbol": "XAR", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.76, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.257, "architecture_energy": 9.585, "architecture_maturity": 19.651, "architecture_confidence": 78.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 27.36, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 63.02, "rotation_down": 44.94, "downward_expansion": 35.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 272.614, 273.85409, 272.920635, 271.660617 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 286.83, "trend_reference": 272.006493, "distance_from_trend": 0.054497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.551922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.078303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054079, "excess_performance": -0.071546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537534, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007891, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 827341, "relative_activity": 0.776378, "balance": 1.005562, "dry_up": 0.979511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06351, "annualized_volatility": 0.293342, "from_high_reference": -0.028566, "from_low_reference": 0.378255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 272.006493, "fair_value_reference": 186.551922, "structural_low": 240.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008147, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003689, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.12307, "worst_return": -0.099003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033358, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.028026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233476, "worst_return": -0.096812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.136636, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005069, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.348236, "worst_return": 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0.04006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.186124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 258.57, "volume": 917105, "typical_volume": 1177457.3, "trend": 270.420866, "fair_value": 183.609007, "relative_strength": -5.879241, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.556659, "energy": 9.134302, "activity_lines": [ 271.582449, 274.718642, 271.568635, 271.18069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 269.01, "volume": 999589, "typical_volume": 1087402.55, "trend": 271.177358, "fair_value": 184.557804, "relative_strength": -1.579423, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.889165, "energy": 7.967378, "activity_lines": [ 269.526, 273.664981, 271.552699, 271.089666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 264.86, "volume": 1431193, "typical_volume": 1081838.0, "trend": 271.662906, "fair_value": 185.48473, "relative_strength": -4.184245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.53929, "energy": 16.958647, "activity_lines": [ 267.100667, 271.705357, 271.189912, 270.682094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 286.83, "volume": 827341, "typical_volume": 1065641.35, "trend": 272.006493, "fair_value": 186.551922, "relative_strength": 0.078303, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.25675, "energy": 9.584812, "activity_lines": [ 272.614, 273.85409, 272.920635, 271.660617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }