{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b4fb8b5-32a0-4d40-b933-cc5a5dfec6f9", "symbol": "AGYS", "name": "Agilysys Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.774, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.505, "architecture_energy": 48.662, "architecture_maturity": 46.792, "architecture_confidence": 74.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.98, "rotation_up": 56.56, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 64.49, "rotation_down": 23.23, "downward_expansion": 7.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.433333, 103.961818, 94.451667, 88.806645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 108.58, "trend_reference": 85.435, "distance_from_trend": 0.270908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.756154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.844884, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.262411, "excess_performance": 0.074958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.270908, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.369647, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.697156, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1282486, "relative_activity": 0.767457, "balance": 2.697156, "dry_up": 0.902267, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113914, "annualized_volatility": 0.54039, "from_high_reference": -0.252461, "from_low_reference": 0.765528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.435, "fair_value_reference": 95.756154, "structural_low": 61.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.015389, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": -0.032112, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.253859, "worst_return": -0.321986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00308, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.093906, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.584877, "worst_return": -0.396947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07922, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.181392, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.705799, "worst_return": -0.241758, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.822185, "energy": 72.726714, "activity_lines": [ 106.294667, 99.476364, 88.290381, 85.345914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.54, "volume": 1444055, "typical_volume": 1667494.85, "trend": 86.073, "fair_value": 95.309038, "relative_strength": -8.760411, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.087852, "energy": 69.40217, "activity_lines": [ 104.704, 100.493455, 89.940381, 86.100903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.16, "volume": 1956628, "typical_volume": 1693328.2, "trend": 85.728, "fair_value": 95.509359, "relative_strength": -2.503484, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.971286, "energy": 50.809194, "activity_lines": [ 104.584667, 102.146909, 92.120476, 87.332323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.58, "volume": 1282486, "typical_volume": 1671084.15, "trend": 85.435, "fair_value": 95.756154, "relative_strength": -3.844884, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.505264, "energy": 48.661659, "activity_lines": [ 105.433333, 103.961818, 94.451667, 88.806645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }