{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b67d208-b188-427a-bd72-230e7f70a0ce", "symbol": "CCXAA", "name": "UBS CMCI ex-Agriculture SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.048, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.377, "architecture_energy": 29.746, "architecture_maturity": 46.812, "architecture_confidence": 58.612, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.68, "rotation_up": 55.32, "upward_expansion": 60.37, "deceleration": 68.24, "rotation_down": 11.92, "downward_expansion": 15.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 295.233335, 292.290002, 295.341668, 293.261613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 297.700012, "trend_reference": 287.591667, "distance_from_trend": 0.035148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 226.34129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.734967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130864, "excess_performance": 0.047981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185, "relative_activity": 0.420741, "balance": 0.462679, "dry_up": 0.69934, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025322, "annualized_volatility": 0.142918, "from_high_reference": -0.063836, "from_low_reference": 0.376011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 287.591667, "fair_value_reference": 226.34129, "structural_low": 257.549988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006705, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015145, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.083024, "worst_return": -0.03847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009466, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.023916, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.166936, "worst_return": -0.076242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206392, "worst_return": -0.083957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014822, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005868, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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282.708333, "fair_value": 224.459239, "relative_strength": 1.470257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.503703, "energy": 32.781947, "activity_lines": [ 286.876666, 291.402729, 294.845, 290.921183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 297.549988, "volume": 154, "typical_volume": 592.85, "trend": 284.531666, "fair_value": 225.090841, "relative_strength": 3.616896, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.607848, "energy": 18.656739, "activity_lines": [ 290.613328, 291.633635, 295.158571, 291.878709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 294.350006, "volume": 583, "typical_volume": 607.8, "trend": 286.083333, "fair_value": 225.703341, "relative_strength": 2.175509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.221466, "energy": 18.689624, "activity_lines": [ 292.836664, 291.536364, 295.097619, 292.51215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 297.700012, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 439.7, "trend": 287.591667, "fair_value": 226.34129, "relative_strength": 1.734967, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.377142, "energy": 29.746063, "activity_lines": [ 295.233335, 292.290002, 295.341668, 293.261613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }