{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b683159-af0b-4694-9ca5-efd583b31f3d", "symbol": "D03", "name": "Del Monte Pacific Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.873, "architecture_energy": 91.784, "architecture_maturity": 50.375, "architecture_confidence": 81.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.34, "upward_expansion": 21.89, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 86.07, "downward_expansion": 99.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071867, 0.075345, 0.079976, 0.082439 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.085333, "distance_from_trend": -0.179687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.09709, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.65317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195402, "excess_performance": -0.350237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.432709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376600, "relative_activity": 0.751494, "balance": 0.432709, "dry_up": 1.280094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06044, "annualized_volatility": 0.287045, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.014493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.085333, "fair_value_reference": 0.09709, "structural_low": 0.069, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.03141, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.140845, "worst_return": -0.203883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.118533, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.150125, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.621212, "worst_return": -0.227275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.17, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.252913, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.402985, "worst_return": -0.371069, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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0.0844, 0.086024, 0.08729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.079, "volume": 713100, "typical_volume": 905590.0, "trend": 0.0889, "fair_value": 0.099583, "relative_strength": -23.869165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.303623, "energy": 78.034114, "activity_lines": [ 0.081267, 0.083255, 0.085219, 0.086594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.07, "volume": 789600, "typical_volume": 803555.0, "trend": 0.087967, "fair_value": 0.098891, "relative_strength": -32.679196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.427839, "energy": 92.222451, "activity_lines": [ 0.077267, 0.080618, 0.083614, 0.085374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 513300, "typical_volume": 742040.0, "trend": 0.087233, "fair_value": 0.098263, "relative_strength": -28.619143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.081698, "energy": 85.781082, "activity_lines": [ 0.075867, 0.079145, 0.08261, 0.084538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.071, "volume": 886500, "typical_volume": 626200.0, "trend": 0.0863, "fair_value": 0.097647, "relative_strength": -32.348522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.227284, "energy": 92.573301, "activity_lines": [ 0.073667, 0.077182, 0.081295, 0.08349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 376600, "typical_volume": 501135.0, "trend": 0.085333, "fair_value": 0.09709, "relative_strength": -33.65317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.872709, "energy": 91.784297, "activity_lines": [ 0.071867, 0.075345, 0.079976, 0.082439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }