{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b6b47ee-c56f-410c-9ed7-3295d1c69bb1", "symbol": "PBF", "name": "PBF Energy Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.686, "architecture_energy": 87.346, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.602, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.36, "rotation_up": 80.52, "upward_expansion": 97.56, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.14, "downward_expansion": 21.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.082667, 57.611455, 50.80457, 47.932899 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.71, "trend_reference": 43.75643, "distance_from_trend": 0.410307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.472611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.739652, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 46.163017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.763327, "excess_performance": 0.637703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.410307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.739652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.567323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.46163, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.289603, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.763327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.708149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18887423, "relative_activity": 1.249052, "balance": 1.708149, "dry_up": 1.139363, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119267, "annualized_volatility": 0.687217, "from_high_reference": -0.174338, "from_low_reference": 1.97395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.75643, "fair_value_reference": 35.472611, "structural_low": 32.23684, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.050744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0231, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.44583, "worst_return": -0.290603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.045548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059025, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.704415, "worst_return": -0.196523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.341555, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.240162, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.689699, "worst_return": -0.448567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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91.461256, "energy": 89.688562, "activity_lines": [ 52.894, 47.970545, 45.11588, 43.324411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.63, "volume": 15001173, "typical_volume": 15540918.25, "trend": 41.303872, "fair_value": 35.1681, "relative_strength": 58.835661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.70587, "energy": 91.710845, "activity_lines": [ 57.161333, 50.962545, 46.776894, 44.712888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.28, "volume": 19293724, "typical_volume": 15269021.8, "trend": 42.775962, "fair_value": 35.367645, "relative_strength": 80.129438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.121405, "energy": 96.857054, "activity_lines": [ 63.356, 55.539455, 49.363285, 46.711348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.71, "volume": 18887423, "typical_volume": 15121406.8, "trend": 43.75643, "fair_value": 35.472611, "relative_strength": 46.163017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.686143, "energy": 87.346143, "activity_lines": [ 64.082667, 57.611455, 50.80457, 47.932899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }