{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b6fbd26-a09e-4922-ae6b-f09d43aba631", "symbol": "BHD", "name": "Benjamin Hornigold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.642, "architecture_energy": 88.924, "architecture_maturity": 21.789, "architecture_confidence": 85.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 81.77, "upward_expansion": 97.64, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.237, 0.221909, 0.204143, 0.197613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.19225, "distance_from_trend": 0.222367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.204968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.001335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.175, "excess_performance": 0.111294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222367, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275688, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.180013, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200163, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.832657, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50279, "relative_activity": 0.964304, "balance": 5.832657, "dry_up": 2.882857, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037643, "annualized_volatility": 0.370354, "from_high_reference": -0.06, "from_low_reference": 0.382353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.19225, "fair_value_reference": 0.204968, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.012063, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.118644, "worst_return": -0.134615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019344, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041983, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054054, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.050847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.180177, 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"down", "direction": -19.148979, "energy": 37.849087, "activity_lines": [ 0.181667, 0.179636, 0.179786, 0.182118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.21, "volume": 216579, "typical_volume": 31903.05, "trend": 0.185917, "fair_value": 0.204679, "relative_strength": 13.067132, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.864778, "energy": 61.84439, "activity_lines": [ 0.191667, 0.185273, 0.182536, 0.183715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.21, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29495.55, "trend": 0.186583, "fair_value": 0.204551, "relative_strength": 13.262649, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.008348, "energy": 84.672786, "activity_lines": [ 0.199, 0.190364, 0.18519, 0.185269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28361.6, "trend": 0.18725, "fair_value": 0.204487, "relative_strength": 13.039811, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.753247, "energy": 87.608386, "activity_lines": [ 0.204333, 0.194909, 0.18775, 0.18678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.25, "volume": 550972, "typical_volume": 54942.25, "trend": 0.189083, "fair_value": 0.204679, "relative_strength": 34.002266, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.512204, "energy": 99.443409, "activity_lines": [ 0.221333, 0.206182, 0.194, 0.190828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52626.25, "trend": 0.19075, "fair_value": 0.204872, "relative_strength": 30.11783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.841996, "energy": 98.881678, "activity_lines": [ 0.234, 0.216091, 0.199952, 0.194758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 50279, "typical_volume": 52140.2, "trend": 0.19225, "fair_value": 0.204968, "relative_strength": 18.001335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.642283, "energy": 88.923971, "activity_lines": [ 0.237, 0.221909, 0.204143, 0.197613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }