{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b735e69-d549-459d-bce4-396bdbcbd242", "symbol": "SAN", "name": "Banco Santander, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.514, "architecture_energy": 68.367, "architecture_maturity": 38.186, "architecture_confidence": 88.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 65.51, "upward_expansion": 84.9, "deceleration": 58.54, "rotation_down": 21.09, "downward_expansion": 11.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.3512, 12.151818, 11.566369, 11.157094 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.858, "trend_reference": 10.752688, "distance_from_trend": 0.195794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.343465, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.026968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.603452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.22076, "excess_performance": 0.09633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.195794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.026968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168604, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116035, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.298237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102478788, "relative_activity": 1.039335, "balance": 2.298237, "dry_up": 1.147459, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04378, "annualized_volatility": 0.325139, "from_high_reference": -0.013352, "from_low_reference": 0.687635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.752688, "fair_value_reference": 6.343465, "structural_low": 8.83133, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.015511, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.012716, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.253425, "worst_return": -0.150618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006167, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.02574, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.298448, "worst_return": -0.053433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.117138, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.002406, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.517698, "worst_return": -0.12438, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 12.022533, 11.661745, 11.097907, 10.809546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.98, "volume": 145250412, "typical_volume": 108843930.85, "trend": 10.588798, "fair_value": 6.223552, "relative_strength": 7.99022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.262552, "energy": 77.780168, "activity_lines": [ 12.015733, 11.784655, 11.22803, 10.903839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.318, "volume": 114329001, "typical_volume": 106175009.0, "trend": 10.661743, "fair_value": 6.281732, "relative_strength": 9.460751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.577925, "energy": 61.582611, "activity_lines": [ 12.109733, 11.936327, 11.37838, 11.0154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.858, "volume": 102478788, "typical_volume": 98600342.65, "trend": 10.752688, "fair_value": 6.343465, "relative_strength": 11.603452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.514256, "energy": 68.367417, "activity_lines": [ 12.3512, 12.151818, 11.566369, 11.157094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }