{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b771fab-ab57-4d66-890a-143eaf431b8b", "symbol": "MTD", "name": "Mettler-Toledo International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.471, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.147, "architecture_energy": 70.105, "architecture_maturity": 15.725, "architecture_confidence": 64.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.51, "rotation_up": 78.31, "upward_expansion": 67.05, "deceleration": 18.2, "rotation_down": 16.41, "downward_expansion": 23.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1380.683333, 1328.270545, 1265.887952, 1260.074538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1429.46, "trend_reference": 1274.523, "distance_from_trend": 0.121565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1269.123654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.242916, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04069, "excess_performance": -0.084935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038165, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.231637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 832776, "relative_activity": 0.917789, "balance": 2.231637, "dry_up": 0.951684, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061088, "annualized_volatility": 0.374095, "from_high_reference": -0.062754, "from_low_reference": 0.397253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1274.523, "fair_value_reference": 1269.123654, "structural_low": 1023.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047822, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010399, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.09833, "worst_return": -0.101439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148858, "worst_return": 0.050615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.188812, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.114054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222438, "worst_return": 0.13505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088873, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022178, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05983, 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"close": 1327.18, "volume": 1045875, "typical_volume": 912216.35, "trend": 1276.214667, "fair_value": 1266.979615, "relative_strength": -6.176921, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.010877, "energy": 40.31571, "activity_lines": [ 1309.673333, 1260.913636, 1228.982905, 1241.160538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1416.3, "volume": 939681, "typical_volume": 910021.85, "trend": 1276.378333, "fair_value": 1267.907885, "relative_strength": -0.911525, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.487149, "energy": 58.26289, "activity_lines": [ 1348.07, 1296.243091, 1247.386286, 1250.198301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1429.46, "volume": 832776, "typical_volume": 907372.2, "trend": 1274.523, "fair_value": 1269.123654, "relative_strength": -3.242916, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.146598, "energy": 70.105365, "activity_lines": [ 1380.683333, 1328.270545, 1265.887952, 1260.074538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }