{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b7760c4-1312-43a1-9c30-eef4306fd3ca", "symbol": "OXE", "name": "OXE Marine AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.823, "architecture_energy": 64.566, "architecture_maturity": 16.551, "architecture_confidence": 80.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.05, "rotation_up": 8.62, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 37.73, "rotation_down": 65.41, "downward_expansion": 82.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.221267, 0.245727, 0.256367, 0.261589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.224, "trend_reference": 0.2738, "distance_from_trend": -0.181885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.51691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.566655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.65385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286624, "excess_performance": -0.348119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132812, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.566655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.436538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.675286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5906617, "relative_activity": 1.139491, "balance": 1.675286, "dry_up": 1.410089, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195055, "annualized_volatility": 0.706593, "from_high_reference": -0.626667, "from_low_reference": 0.493333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2738, "fair_value_reference": 0.51691, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.035556, "positive_rate": 0.311111, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061909, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.273063, "worst_return": -0.302857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.105401, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.093416, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.56229, "worst_return": -0.27665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.212171, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.285958, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278237, "worst_return": -0.359551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.564607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062731, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.225632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.269036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.301418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.974, "volume": 292408, "typical_volume": 285437.0, "trend": 1.2446, "fair_value": 1.903712, "relative_strength": -31.379121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.338119, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.288733, 0.281327, 0.271905, 0.279596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.283, "volume": 1552333, "typical_volume": 3928775.35, "trend": 0.295233, "fair_value": 0.53957, "relative_strength": -31.551309, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.71235, "energy": 11.187083, "activity_lines": [ 0.286867, 0.283473, 0.2731, 0.278548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.279, "volume": 2486281, "typical_volume": 3967951.65, "trend": 0.2922, "fair_value": 0.533634, "relative_strength": -31.205783, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.772109, "energy": 7.743195, "activity_lines": [ 0.284, 0.283873, 0.274062, 0.277501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 7898502, "typical_volume": 4311951.15, "trend": 0.285967, "fair_value": 0.528121, "relative_strength": -52.877509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.321761, "energy": 35.565427, "activity_lines": [ 0.251667, 0.267564, 0.266505, 0.270908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.197, "volume": 12945700, "typical_volume": 4912575.05, "trend": 0.279467, "fair_value": 0.522493, "relative_strength": -50.596588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.880182, "energy": 64.097481, "activity_lines": [ 0.228867, 0.253545, 0.260024, 0.265168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.224, "volume": 5906617, "typical_volume": 5183557.55, "trend": 0.2738, "fair_value": 0.51691, "relative_strength": -43.65385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.822646, "energy": 64.566443, "activity_lines": [ 0.221267, 0.245727, 0.256367, 0.261589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }