{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b77ceb7-ad48-45a8-8937-f94180cbb1c2", "symbol": "TBLD", "name": "Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities Trust Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.129, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.845, "architecture_energy": 29.944, "architecture_maturity": 14.83, "architecture_confidence": 64.509, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.4, "rotation_up": 47.61, "upward_expansion": 73.3, "deceleration": 58.78, "rotation_down": 18.92, "downward_expansion": 2.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.028406, 21.929558, 21.91869, 21.781363 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.32, "trend_reference": 21.557445, "distance_from_trend": 0.035373, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.675632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.089009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047136, "excess_performance": -0.140318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035373, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040142, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.095503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244211, "relative_activity": 0.891305, "balance": 1.095503, "dry_up": 0.865873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032984, "annualized_volatility": 0.142896, "from_high_reference": -0.02451, "from_low_reference": 0.194923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.557445, "fair_value_reference": 16.675632, "structural_low": 20.259955, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002491, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.01648, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.034047, "worst_return": -0.04915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047048, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070726, "worst_return": 0.023371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07878, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099957, "worst_return": 0.057603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048571, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 279348.05, "trend": 21.321415, "fair_value": 16.494239, "relative_strength": -2.749314, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.915363, "energy": 16.740624, "activity_lines": [ 21.86796, 21.892209, 21.822713, 21.664365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.78, "volume": 255946, "typical_volume": 278242.25, "trend": 21.400793, "fair_value": 16.552619, "relative_strength": -2.337025, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.73838, "energy": 15.715384, "activity_lines": [ 21.848388, 21.859544, 21.837034, 21.693951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.91, "volume": 243650, "typical_volume": 277207.15, "trend": 21.47432, "fair_value": 16.613187, "relative_strength": -2.202134, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.898768, "energy": 16.667815, "activity_lines": [ 21.877849, 21.850443, 21.860905, 21.726803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.32, "volume": 244211, "typical_volume": 273992.65, "trend": 21.557445, "fair_value": 16.675632, "relative_strength": -5.089009, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.845091, "energy": 29.943984, "activity_lines": [ 22.028406, 21.929558, 21.91869, 21.781363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }