{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b789f66-a4d2-4097-a408-155f2bd11775", "symbol": "WNRG", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.941, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.441, "architecture_energy": 51.48, "architecture_maturity": 5.27, "architecture_confidence": 65.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.66, "rotation_up": 68.24, "upward_expansion": 78.1, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 11.17, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.620001, 62.161819, 61.820524, 61.544818 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.68, "trend_reference": 60.218667, "distance_from_trend": 0.040873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.179263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.237375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144004, "excess_performance": -0.026887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011447, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.973438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1927, "relative_activity": 0.188534, "balance": 2.973438, "dry_up": 0.898914, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042855, "annualized_volatility": 0.287464, "from_high_reference": -0.08376, "from_low_reference": 0.410124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.218667, "fair_value_reference": 49.179263, "structural_low": 54.580002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.011514, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.023617, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.154498, "worst_return": -0.135832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027918, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.074428, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.428298, "worst_return": -0.126714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032322, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.069614, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.387671, "worst_return": -0.144116, "sufficient": true }, { 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48.406475, "relative_strength": -2.614195, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.004273, "energy": 8.982498, "activity_lines": [ 60.039333, 61.004364, 61.453572, 60.077226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.860001, "volume": 1829, "typical_volume": 14629.35, "trend": 57.648167, "fair_value": 48.518398, "relative_strength": -6.601104, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.276976, "energy": 17.880473, "activity_lines": [ 59.136667, 60.349637, 61.138953, 60.109785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.73, "volume": 26675, "typical_volume": 15610.45, "trend": 58.053167, "fair_value": 48.642789, "relative_strength": -3.192918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.924477, "energy": 20.159793, "activity_lines": [ 59.016, 60.090182, 60.993715, 60.244097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.740002, "volume": 24060, "typical_volume": 15551.35, "trend": 58.587334, "fair_value": 48.777436, "relative_strength": 2.965282, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.388519, "energy": 16.163531, "activity_lines": [ 60.126001, 60.45291, 61.121001, 60.546474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.75, "volume": 5607, "typical_volume": 12674.3, "trend": 59.2135, "fair_value": 48.926667, "relative_strength": 7.778752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.180006, "energy": 32.927883, "activity_lines": [ 62.213334, 61.312546, 61.510477, 61.008581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.610001, "volume": 5157, "typical_volume": 11262.95, "trend": 59.764834, "fair_value": 49.062757, "relative_strength": 4.971758, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.243852, "energy": 50.455149, "activity_lines": [ 63.439334, 61.920546, 61.762762, 61.356742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.68, "volume": 1927, "typical_volume": 10220.95, "trend": 60.218667, "fair_value": 49.179263, "relative_strength": -1.237375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.441295, "energy": 51.480066, "activity_lines": [ 63.620001, 62.161819, 61.820524, 61.544818 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }