{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b793b97-b882-40e5-9bab-36259b8c01c5", "symbol": "UIMS", "name": "UBS MSCI World Small Cap Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.076, "architecture_energy": 72.774, "architecture_maturity": 42.841, "architecture_confidence": 78.841, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 70.89, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 58.68, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.4404, 11.354073, 11.123224, 10.941297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.712, "trend_reference": 10.764467, "distance_from_trend": 0.088024, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.541845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.927023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096013, "excess_performance": 0.031374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088024, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03927, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365819, "relative_activity": 2.006705, "balance": 1.341014, "dry_up": 0.905677, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018324, "annualized_volatility": 0.125874, "from_high_reference": -0.001535, "from_low_reference": 0.255305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.764467, "fair_value_reference": 9.541845, "structural_low": 9.728, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006508, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.004972, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.044743, "worst_return": -0.094539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018099, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036358, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.091519, "worst_return": -0.117636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038513, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070696, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.079594, "worst_return": -0.08074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.33, "volume": 199173, "typical_volume": 213920.3, "trend": 10.604933, "fair_value": 9.465999, "relative_strength": 6.704936, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.972168, "energy": 89.99542, "activity_lines": [ 11.2708, 11.110764, 10.865938, 10.749077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.328, "volume": 113124, "typical_volume": 201520.8, "trend": 10.6456, "fair_value": 9.484473, "relative_strength": 7.331215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.580895, "energy": 88.547815, "activity_lines": [ 11.309867, 11.173964, 10.9277, 10.795727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.356, "volume": 96095, "typical_volume": 194550.6, "trend": 10.6876, "fair_value": 9.50246, "relative_strength": 6.144105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.373691, "energy": 85.763814, "activity_lines": [ 11.337333, 11.231382, 10.989252, 10.841559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.248, "volume": 85376, "typical_volume": 175978.6, "trend": 10.726467, "fair_value": 9.520338, "relative_strength": 2.757257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.296376, "energy": 63.955522, "activity_lines": [ 11.3104, 11.255091, 11.036719, 10.877714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.712, "volume": 365819, "typical_volume": 182298.35, "trend": 10.764467, "fair_value": 9.541845, "relative_strength": 3.927023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.075808, "energy": 72.773775, "activity_lines": [ 11.4404, 11.354073, 11.123224, 10.941297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }