{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b7ab074-32ec-4771-ad2d-38f015e1b0b2", "symbol": "IPRP", "name": "iShares European Property Yield UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.685, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.032, "architecture_energy": 27.85, "architecture_maturity": 6.34, "architecture_confidence": 65.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.5, "rotation_up": 62.2, "upward_expansion": 46.51, "deceleration": 24.03, "rotation_down": 15.59, "downward_expansion": 16.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.490333, 28.310424, 28.156871, 28.262775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.594999, "trend_reference": 28.473897, "distance_from_trend": 0.004253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.05149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.473797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018079, "excess_performance": -0.100962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011192, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018079, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.681066, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19227, "relative_activity": 1.702258, "balance": 1.681066, "dry_up": 2.989486, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021127, "annualized_volatility": 0.210746, "from_high_reference": -0.088351, "from_low_reference": 0.086849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.473897, "fair_value_reference": 27.05149, "structural_low": 26.309999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.003429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006768, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.16121, "worst_return": -0.099714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013489, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.065694, "worst_return": -0.088695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004502, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099406, "worst_return": -0.214687, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.588591, "energy": 16.946228, "activity_lines": [ 28.07377, 27.901251, 28.026223, 28.261846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.25, "volume": 67181, "typical_volume": 8791.1, "trend": 28.465554, "fair_value": 26.9383, "relative_strength": -10.37211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.326995, "energy": 18.45315, "activity_lines": [ 28.163, 27.984842, 28.024256, 28.248732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.315001, "volume": 36165, "typical_volume": 10419.2, "trend": 28.477166, "fair_value": 26.973698, "relative_strength": -9.740264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.026452, "energy": 12.883189, "activity_lines": [ 28.240667, 28.071455, 28.043033, 28.239019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.74, "volume": 12492, "typical_volume": 10717.3, "trend": 28.489613, "fair_value": 27.013301, "relative_strength": -8.184296, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.661683, "energy": 15.760458, "activity_lines": [ 28.404334, 28.213551, 28.107913, 28.255976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.594999, "volume": 19227, "typical_volume": 11295.0, "trend": 28.473897, "fair_value": 27.05149, "relative_strength": -9.473797, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.032003, "energy": 27.849508, "activity_lines": [ 28.490333, 28.310424, 28.156871, 28.262775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }