{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b7caf23-ad45-4770-89a3-326d49ef00cb", "symbol": "XCS3", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Malaysia UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.925, "architecture_energy": 22.37, "architecture_maturity": 47.177, "architecture_confidence": 60.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.41, "rotation_up": 31.76, "upward_expansion": 18.2, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 54.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.544667, 14.442182, 14.560131, 14.64021 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.62, "trend_reference": 14.730917, "distance_from_trend": -0.00753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.116139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.027109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028249, "excess_performance": -0.079484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.77573, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62845, "relative_activity": 1.42209, "balance": 0.77573, "dry_up": 0.691324, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023098, "annualized_volatility": 0.113406, "from_high_reference": -0.076145, "from_low_reference": 0.189585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.730917, "fair_value_reference": 12.116139, "structural_low": 14.04, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.00288, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.001892, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.098057, "worst_return": -0.075554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044419, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.028327, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.093069, "worst_return": -0.053598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032536, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.012956, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.072545, "worst_return": -0.105568, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027165, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.239609, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.292444, "energy": 39.531567, "activity_lines": [ 14.376667, 14.398682, 14.601024, 14.672957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.435, "volume": 32160, "typical_volume": 48741.5, "trend": 14.69525, "fair_value": 12.057148, "relative_strength": -3.774728, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.323992, "energy": 25.976806, "activity_lines": [ 14.418167, 14.382864, 14.577988, 14.656892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.53, "volume": 12834, "typical_volume": 46004.45, "trend": 14.713333, "fair_value": 12.086123, "relative_strength": -4.337892, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.286098, "energy": 20.720262, "activity_lines": [ 14.481833, 14.400864, 14.564607, 14.646231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.62, "volume": 62845, "typical_volume": 44192.0, "trend": 14.730917, "fair_value": 12.116139, "relative_strength": -4.027109, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.924578, "energy": 22.369526, "activity_lines": [ 14.544667, 14.442182, 14.560131, 14.64021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }