{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b806ba5-fa84-4bd2-bedd-38f25b54a284", "symbol": "002867", "name": "Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.674, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.095, "architecture_energy": 29.068, "architecture_maturity": 21.168, "architecture_confidence": 76.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.7, "rotation_up": 66.47, "upward_expansion": 36.8, "deceleration": 34.09, "rotation_down": 12.18, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.443628, 12.024367, 12.082144, 12.123162 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 12.204233, "distance_from_trend": 0.036526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.872634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.926812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007064, "excess_performance": -0.014464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39699817, "relative_activity": 1.062406, "balance": 0.531367, "dry_up": 1.250324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052107, "annualized_volatility": 0.253241, "from_high_reference": -0.134407, "from_low_reference": 0.169357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.204233, "fair_value_reference": 12.872634, "structural_low": 10.817909, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015072, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.072458, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.254753, "worst_return": -0.079611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023447, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118105, "worst_return": -0.013564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.130159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263842, "worst_return": -0.247231, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -52.516854, "energy": 44.022546, "activity_lines": [ 11.509078, 11.622567, 11.94072, 12.049788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.09, "volume": 51681971, "typical_volume": 36621101.55, "trend": 12.1649, "fair_value": 12.889371, "relative_strength": -4.589794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.181325, "energy": 18.430923, "activity_lines": [ 11.749579, 11.668985, 11.945258, 12.044676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.92, "volume": 41020159, "typical_volume": 36937030.35, "trend": 12.188567, "fair_value": 12.880607, "relative_strength": 3.900318, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.962618, "energy": 22.70569, "activity_lines": [ 12.209143, 11.876131, 12.028225, 12.093392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 39699817, "typical_volume": 37367848.85, "trend": 12.204233, "fair_value": 12.872634, "relative_strength": -2.926812, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.095113, "energy": 29.067956, "activity_lines": [ 12.443628, 12.024367, 12.082144, 12.123162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }