{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5b828342-e854-4fa3-8d8b-5b24217c1cbd",
    "symbol": "NRT",
    "name": "North European Oil Royalty Trust",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 22.541,
    "architecture_energy": 38.254,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.885,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.116,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.82,
        "rotation_up": 65.58,
        "upward_expansion": 42.9,
        "deceleration": 31.56,
        "rotation_down": 16.76,
        "downward_expansion": 20.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.768667,
        8.224727,
        8.053879,
        8.13336
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 8.81,
    "trend_reference": 8.206356,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.073558,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.565596,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.582939,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 12.073825,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.004645,
    "excess_performance": -0.12098,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073558,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081073,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.582939,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.182046,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120738,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05551,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004645,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.507066,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 247876,
      "relative_activity": 0.844901,
      "balance": 1.507066,
      "dry_up": 0.871943,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.083634,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.473504,
      "from_high_reference": -0.136464,
      "from_low_reference": 0.994901
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 8.206356,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.565596,
      "structural_low": 6.83,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.14458,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.156524,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.07129,
        "worst_return": -0.221154,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.097222,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.184094,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.041241,
        "worst_return": -0.219719,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.208353,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.396413,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.044148,
        "worst_return": -0.358716,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.346424,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.459554,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.30582,
        "worst_return": -0.387028,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.367954,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.10955,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.127507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.050973,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.085261,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.136066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.067437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.61865,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.104784,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.33007,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 5.638915,
        "relative_strength": -1.595653,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 371720.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 365008.65,
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        "relative_strength": 5.229221,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.079294,
        "energy": 49.461971,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.4,
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          7.939053
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 298036,
        "typical_volume": 347876.7,
        "trend": 8.067613,
        "fair_value": 5.571737,
        "relative_strength": 20.536417,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -6.544756,
        "energy": 9.778893,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.51,
        "volume": 247554,
        "typical_volume": 310148.05,
        "trend": 8.16112,
        "fair_value": 5.573977,
        "relative_strength": 26.162408,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.652073,
        "energy": 37.560862,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.538,
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          8.091496
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.81,
        "volume": 247876,
        "typical_volume": 293378.65,
        "trend": 8.206356,
        "fair_value": 5.565596,
        "relative_strength": 12.073825,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.540861,
        "energy": 38.253953,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.768667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}